Negotiation optimism cooled in one day… “Putin can’t judge the situation from the Yes Man” – Cheonji Ilbo

[천지일보=이솜 기자] Russian President Vladimir Putin has told the world too many lies. The most recent lie is: Prior to the invasion of Russia on February 24, he had assembled 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and insisted there were “no plans to invade.”

Therefore, it is not surprising that deep skepticism is rising about the sharp reduction in military activity in Ukraine announced by the Russian government at the 5th peace talks on the 29th.

In fact, the atmosphere changed abruptly a day after it was observed that Ukraine and Russia had achieved some degree of success in the peace negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the optimistic outlook, saying, “We do not believe in any spurious phrases,” as local reports emerged that the Russian military did not keep its promises to limit military operations and continued to attack the capital Kiiu and other places.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, entering its fifth week, has left a quarter of Ukrainians from their homes, and tensions between Russia and the West are at their worst since the Cold War.

Strong resistance from Ukrainian forces prevented Russia from capturing major cities, including Kiiu. During the peace talks, the Russian government promised to curtail operations near Kiiu and the northern city of Chernivu. However, Western allies, including Ukraine and the United States, were pessimistic about this as a ploy by Russia to prevent its own losses and prepare for other attacks.

Ukraine-Russia drawing a line on optimism

The Russian military rejected Ukraine’s diplomatic proposals just one day after the peace talks. President Vladimir Medinsky, who leads the Russian negotiating team, told reporters after completing negotiations in Istanbul right after the talks on the day that they had constructive negotiations and even hinted at the possibility of a summit between the two countries.

However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov withdrew his comments the next day. Peskov said the meeting did not represent a turning point and that “there was no one who said that the two sides had made progress.” Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, a close aide to Putin, also pointed out that “we are not doing any kind of retreat” and that “there is something wrong with Madinsky’s adviser”.

Doubts are growing over the Russian military’s promise to reduce airstrikes on Kiiu and Chernihiu and focus on occupying the eastern region.

Western officials analyzed that the Russian government’s shift in military strategy suggests a greater focus on securing one of its strongholds in Ukraine. The British Ministry of Defense said that there is a possibility that Russian forces will return to Belarus and Russia and regroup after suffering heavy losses.

According to an assessment by the Pentagon, the Russian attack on that day appeared to be concentrated in areas away from the capital, but most of the Russian forces around Kiiu were not relocated to other areas. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the attack did not stop and that Kiiwu was “very threatened.” The governor of Chernivu also said the airstrike warning had not stopped.

Ukrainian forces also expressed doubts about abandoning the occupation of Kiiu, although they saw signs that Russian forces were gathering again to focus on the east. The Ukrainian army drew a line that the movement of (Russian) troops around the capital was also just a unit rotation.

“Putin faces a military rebellion”

Prolonged war is inevitable unless the Russian government keeps its promises. As a result, the Russian military, government, and people are also being hit like a snowball.

Earlier this month, the British Economic Recovery Center and strategic consulting firms said, “Russia spent only about 7 billion dollars (about 8,584.1 billion won) in the first four days of the war. It is highly probable that the number has risen to between 20 and 25 billion dollars (about 24,526 trillion to 30,657.5 billion won) per day due to launches, etc.” If this estimate is applied, Russia’s military expenditure from the outbreak of the war on February 24 to March 30 amounts to between 648 and 803 billion dollars (about 777.6 trillion to 963.6 trillion won). Considering that the annual revenue of the Russian government is about 342.5 trillion won, it is an astronomical cost.

There are also local reports that the morale of Russian soldiers is also dropping day by day. According to Reuters, Jeremy Fleming, head of intelligence at the British Information and Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), said on the 30th (local time) that Putin was facing a military revolt in Ukraine.

During a speech at the Australian National University, he said: “We have seen Russian troops, who lacked weapons and morale, refused orders, destroyed their equipment and even accidentally shot down their own aircraft in Ukraine. “Putin is seriously misjudging the situation,” Fleming said.

The same argument was continued by the US government on the same day.

The White House released the results of a recently declassified investigation, saying Putin was receiving misinformation from his advisers about the situation in Ukraine’s war. The intelligence service concluded that Putin was unaware that Putin was even sending conscripts (not elite troops) to Ukraine to sacrifice them. It also judged that it is completely unaware of how much damage the Russian economy is suffering from economic sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.

Copyright © Cheonji Ilbo – New Era Hope Press Prohibition of unauthorized reproduction and redistribution