"Merciless was the first half of March, adding much more snow into the spring spring runoff mix," the weather service said in a report.
10 years of most run-off in most areas (although less likely in northeast North Dakota) are now expected to be based on the existing snow mixed with normal conditions during the remainder. of the run-off period.
“There is likely to be significant snowfall, with an above average flood risk above the Red River and Southern River Basin,” said the weather service.
Almost moderate floods are guaranteed, especially along and near the Blackwater River. Significant overseas and rural flooding is likely to occur, according to the weather service.
While the weather service states that there is some good news, the other two weeks may slowly incur temperatures to a normal environment and a more favorable melting cycle, with near-normal precipitation slightly below normal.
However, there is no guarantee that the end of March and early April will co-operate with the weather service. A cold start could be introduced at the beginning of April and there is likely to be more moisture.
Grand Forks has a 95 per cent chance of moderate flooding, and the river could cushion about 45.8 feet. There is a 90 percent chance that the river trees are at 47.5 feet and a 50 percent chance that the river reaches 50.6 feet.
In addition, 10 percent chance that Grand Forks sees flooding at 54.6 feet. Grand Forks city is protected by a 60 foot flood wall.
Oslo, Minn has a 95 per cent chance. There will be severe flooding and the river could reach 37.2 feet and a 25 per cent chance of reaching the river 38 feet.
Pembina is likely to see severe flooding at 51 feet with a 95 per cent chance, according to the weather service.
There are a number of factors that take account of the weather service in combining the flood, including flow flow, freezing soil moisture, depth of frost, snow pipe and total precipitation.
The weather service said that although the river is still frozen, the normal flow of a stream is almost normal in the north of the harbor and just above the normal flow in the southern half of the harbor. However, current flows remain “significantly lower than” the recorded years of floods of 1997, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
Soil moisture was lower than the normal part in the north-eastern part of the river basin, usually in the central basin and above the normal south. Soil moisture is much lower than it was in the largest flood years of 1997, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
The depth of frost is deeper than usual throughout the Red River Valley, in some areas frost is 3 to 4 feet deep, with ice-ice thickness and lake ice above a normal seasonal range.
The snowpack is also higher than normal. According to the weather service, from December 1, 2018, the fall of snow usually runs from 100 to 200 percent.
Total precipitation from October 1, 2018, to 15 March is very high, said the weather service. The total precipitation runs from 2 to 4 inches above the normal term for most of the Red and Central Basin.
– NWS Grand Forks (@NWSGrandForks) March 15, 2019