securities company Nomura Phatthanasin limited, stated in the analysis yesterday (November 22, 2022) in the theme Play the FIFA World Cup According to Football 2022, starting from November 21 to December 18, 2022, every World Cup event is considered the most followed event by Thai people. And from the data of the World Cup 2014-2018, it was found that there was an increase of more than 2.0 +/- billion baht in spending during the expo. Therefore, the impact of investing in the stock market was studied from 20 years of historical data or the World Cup 5 rounds back to find the right investment strategy during this 2022 World Cup, including picking excellent stocks expected to outperform the market during that period as a guide for investors.
However, during the last 5 World Cups (49-63), the SET was found to give an average return of +4.4% with a probability of 100% during 3 World Cups, namely in Germany in ’49, in South Africa in ’53 and in Brazil in 2014, which 3 times has something similar. The competition will start after work for Thai people, from 8:00 PM to 4:00 AM. Where the 2022 World Cup will start is Thai time between 7:00 pm and 2:00 am, which is most consistent with the three World Cup matches mentioned above.
According to the study, it was found that the groups that gave positive returns with a probability of 100% were retail, transport, agriculture, food, petrochemical, entertainment, banking with an average return of 7.9%, 7.7 in the last three rounds %, 7.3% , 6.6%, 6.4%, 5.6%, 5.5% and 5.1% respectively, most of which benefited from the increase in purchasing power during the expo.
Regarding stocks that tend to rise clearly Having received the last 3 World Cups (excluding rounds with market risks in 2012 (Dot Com Crisis) and 2018 (Trade War)): MACRO, CENTEL, CPALL, MINT, KTB, SCB, MAWR, BBL, MCOT, KBANK Yields 14.3-5.3%, while stocks that have risen with a potential of 67% are: BJC, GFPT, BEC, CPF, ERW, HMPRO 27-3% yield
For the picture of investment between November and December 2022, the market is expected to swing upwards. The main stimulus comes from Thailand’s growing economic outlook. When combined with statistics during the last 3 World Cups, it tends to increase purchasing and spending power. Open the domestic consumption side, as reflected by the SET, the average yield is +4.4% with a probability of 100%.
In addition, it is considered to be an appropriate time to invest. due to the economic fundamentals The interior is still outstanding. The latest GDP for the 3rd quarter of 2022 grew 4.5% from the previous year and remains good in the 4th quarter of 2022, that is, there Nomura estimates growth of more than 3.0% from the previous year and looks at the picture for 2022-2023, increasing by 3.3% from the previous year and 3.5% from the previous year. Therefore, based on the statistics of stock movements that have benefited in the past under the theme “2022 FIFA World Cup Play” , we screen stocks that are worth investing, with outstanding fundamentals and supported by Key Catalyst.
by suggesting collection MACRO, CENTER, BBL, ACRE Combining stocks in the strategy team’s current main investment theme is 1) Contra Commodity Stocks. Profits have fallen and core costs have continued to fall, supporting a recovery. (SCGP, GPSC, GULF) 2) High Growth Stocks (YOU, JMT, CRC) which benefits from the tightening of monetary policy pressures through the acceleration point to see more easing 3) Stocks that benefit domestic consumption + have positive points for entry into the FTSE Global Standard Index in the Mid-Cap section . (TLI) As a result, 11 stocks were built as a Dream Team and achieved excellent returns during the World Cup, with the core theme of each stock under key positions in the 4-3-3 formation:
Keeperthedoor (GOALKEEPER) Select BBL One of SET’s big brothers is an important defense for port protection. namely a bank that has consistently set high reserves Like a goalkeeper who is wary of high risks is definitely sticky
defender (defender)
central defender 1 (Central Defence) choice MACRO An experienced defender whose form has been lost for a while but is returning to good form again (Profit started to recover and became very noticeable at 23) and great timing. Win a goal-scoring ball from a long-missed set-kick (believing that there can be positive surprises in the next step)
mechanical protectortheD 2 (Central Defence) choice SCGP A defender with a consistent form of play. (As if the income of the business continues to grow) and often raises the level of play clearly in important games. (Acquisitions support expansion as investment colors) while costs pass the highest point. And the boundary has accelerated since the 4th quarter of 2022, as a player fully recovers from injury. And there is a thirst for victory for the team again
according totheThe (Left Rear) choice CENTER Focus on strong fundamental stocks Profits are recovering in line with the tourism sector. Gain benefits from the easing of ZCS’s Zero COVID measures and China’s economic stimulus. as a back who is approaching the peak of his career Fill the game to the end of the line after opening the ball correctly. and never walk the line throughout the game
very back (Right Back) choice ACRE Focus on strong fundamental stocks Profits are recovering in line with the tourism sector. Gain benefits from the easing of ZCS’s Zero COVID measures and China’s economic stimulus. as a full back nearing the peak of his career Complete the last game Accurate kick and never walk the line throughout the game
midfielder (Midfield) in our offensive line Little ones flip a lot. and a young player Definitely need a bunch of midfielders to play. But it can also change the game. The first one is indispensable.
Defensive Midfielder/Rhythm Control (Protective Midfield) Select GULF The person who commands the game and controls the rhythm, as Captain “GULF”, especially in the last, creates deals to extend the balance in a structure around The bigger and rougher Like getting the heart of Zlatan Ibrahimovic , “If you believe in God, you believe in GULF”, along with leadership, large and complete, offensive and defensive elements. Ready to order the back panel to remove the rhythm at a disadvantageous moment And ready to encourage the offending line “Dare to play, dare to get up and watch the rhythm of friends too Here, don’t worry, I can take care of you.” At the same time, can change the game / make a difference (Alpha) to the team from up form.
Match Link Midfielder (Midfield) choice TLI Consistently strong insurance business fundamentals As if the ability to pass the ball connects the midfield game that requires precision. While business is an upward cycle (Interest Based) and colourful. The FTSE Index is a powerful tool. As a midfielder with the ability to pass the ball into dangerous areas and a long shot + free kick from outside the penalty area
Attacking a midfielder (Attacking midfield) choice GPSC This is the main powerhouse stock of the market. Although the long-term picture, the main stock in the Green Energy theme stands out, focusing on ball delivery + game creation in the end area of the pitch. Earnings passed the lowest point. and returns to a new growth cycle As a player fully recovered from his injury. And there is a thirst to win again. which will be an important force driving the team’s offensive game
attacker (forward) The current structure of the top team will include a mix of small players, good but strong skills, as a game changing point and good development. and have an opportunity to create Alpha for the portfolio
attacker (attacker) Bullseye CRC He’s a big target, but he still has flexibility. It’s like adapting in a business that needs to be fast. and meet the needs of the new era (Quick adaptation to E-Commerce before other retail stocks in Thailand)
Left winger (left wing) choice YOU Back in the real team again from the form/performance of the last who came back excellent Business agility and adaptability is still doing well. and important things that benefit the team/port In addition to good form, Product champion, tea (green) and future champion “Tan San Su” are all green, creating auspiciousness for the team/portfolio. It’s a sport like a ball that breaks in and then spins into the winger’s goal today.
very aggressive (right wing) choice JMT A right winger who has played for a long time and continues to grow tall. Let’s help coordinate CRC and YOU and personal form JMT is aggressive (in season) too.
