North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the East Sea a day after President Yun Seok-yeol returned from a trip abroad. Analysts say it is a provocation aimed at strengthening military cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan and joint South Korean-US naval exercises. There is also speculation that North Korea, which legalized the possession of a nuclear force last month, will carry out additional provocations in the future, such as a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
○ Fragment, believed to be a KN-23 missile
The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced on the 25th that North Korea had detected a short-range ballistic missile launched from the Taecheon area of North Pyongan Province at around 6:53 on the same day into the East Sea. The missile flew about 600 km at an altitude of 60 km and was detected at a speed of Mach 5 (5 times the speed of sound). The Joint Chiefs of Staff estimate that the missile was launched on a vehicle-type mobile launcher.
The military is weighing the possibility that the missile launched was an Iskander (KN-23) ballistic missile. In the final stage, the missile performed an evasive maneuver characteristic of the KN-23, and is said to have performed up and down maneuvers in some sections. The KN-23 is evaluated as a missile weapon system that is difficult to detect and intercept with existing air defense systems due to its low flight altitude and complex trajectory compared to its flight distance .
In response to North Korea’s provocations, the Office of the President held a National Security Council (NSC) Standing Committee chaired by National Security Bureau Director Kim Seong-han to discuss countermeasures.
The participants noted, “This launch is a clear violation of UN Security Council resolutions and a provocative act that increases tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in the region.”
○ It appears to be aimed at joint training between South Korea and the United States
North Korea’s missile provocation is evaluated as a major protest against the development of US strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula. The Reagan carrier strike group, which arrived in Busan on the 23rd, is scheduled to conduct an intensive joint naval exercise with the ROK Navy from the 26th to the 29th along with two nuclear submarines.
It is analyzed that the stance of strengthening military cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan, which emerged during President Yoon’s foreign trip, could also have influenced the provocation. President Yoon met with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to discuss ways to strengthen cooperation for extended deterrence against North Korea and a joint response to provocations. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the North Korean Graduate School of Studies, said, “It was emphasized that strengthening nuclear power internally is not an empty word as this is the first provocation since North Korea legalized its possession of nuclear power. It is also intended to pave the way for a nuclear test,” he said. As the missile’s flight distance is 600 km, similar to the distance from the launch point of Taecheon to Busan Port, some analyzes say that it was practicing evasion of THAAD (high altitude missile defense system) in Seongju, North Province Gyeongsang.
○ Possible additional irritation during the joint training period
Security authorities are watching the possibility of further provocations by North Korea, such as SLBM launches during the joint exercise. Lee Jae-myung, deputy spokesman of the presidential office, revealed that on the 24th, President Yoon held a security situation check meeting on Air Force One aircraft returning home from a tour of the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada, and signs and movements of North Korean provocations, including SLBMs. Given that the missile launched the following day was fired from land rather than from a submarine, an SLBM may be launched during the training period.
Regarding North Korea’s provocation, the US Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement released on the 25th, “We are aware of the ballistic missile launch and are in close discussion with our allies and partners.”
Reporter Jeon Beom-jin forward@hankyung.com
