Original title: Observation | North Korea launches missiles in response to US sanctions, will the new round of confrontation between North Korea and the United States escalate?
North Korea launched two consecutive missile launches after the United States announced a new round of sanctions on North Korea on January 12.
According to a report by Yonhap News Agency on January 17, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff initially determined on the 17th that the aircraft launched by North Korea that morning was suspected to be a short-range ballistic missile. It was North Korea’s fourth missile launch in two weeks. North Korea test-fired one hypersonic missile each on the 5th and 11th of this month, and again on the 14th test-fired two railway mobile missiles.
Expert analysis believes that it is very unlikely that the confrontation between the DPRK and the United States will escalate significantly. North Korea will still launch missiles and other weapons in the future, and the US sanctions against the DPRK will not be relaxed.
North Korea fires four missiles in two weeks
According to the South Korean Joint Staff Headquarters, the South Korean military detected two aircraft that were suspected to be short-range ballistic missiles fired eastward at Pyongyang’s Sunan Airport on the same day, with a range of less than 400 kilometers. The military is in-depth analysis of various parameters, and tracking and monitoring related movements.
Yonhap News Agency reported that since the range of the two aircraft is less than 400 kilometers, there is a view that North Korea may launch the same weapon again after launching the North Korean version of the “Iskander” (KN-23) missile on a train on the 14th. . Currently, the military is analyzing the types of launch vehicles.
It is reported that the straight-line distance from Pyongyang Sunan Airport to the uninhabited island off the coast of Musudan-ri, Gilju County, North Hamgyong Province, which the DPRK often targets, is 370 to 400 kilometers.
The North Korean version of “Iskander” is a new type of tactical ballistic missile developed by North Korea. It uses a solid rocket motor. It is named because of its similarity to the Russian “Iskander”. The internal code name of North Korea is “Mars”-11. Tracked and wheeled launch chassis.
“North Korea has a variety of missiles and rocket launchers that can reach a range of 400 kilometers, including not only the ‘Hwasong’-11, but also the ultra-long-range rocket launcher, the North Korean version of the ‘Army Tactical Missile’ (ATACMS) and other missiles that can reach this distance.” Military experts Handong pointed out.
According to Yonhap News Agency, Han Jun analyzed that the launch was largely intended to improve the burst capability and hit accuracy.
The North Korean version of the Army Tactical Missile (ATACMS) also has a range of 400 kilometers.This is the second missile launch by North Korea after the US announced a new round of sanctions.
On the 14th, the North Korean Railway Mobile Missile Corps conducted a missile launch. The Korean Central News Agency published an article on the 15th that the purpose of the launch was to test the combat readiness of the fighters of the Railway Mobile Missile Corps, improve the firepower task execution capability, and evaluate the North Ping An railway maneuver. The actual combat capability of the missile regiment is an inspection and launch training.
The KCNA article pointed out that the commanding members of the Korean People’s Army and the leading cadres of the National Defense Academy guided the inspection and launch training. According to reports, on the morning of the 14th, the Railway Mobile Missile Regiment received an urgent firepower mission from the General Staff and quickly maneuvered to the designated launch site to launch two tactical missiles, which precisely hit the target located in the East Sea of North Korea.
North Korea first disclosed the existence of rail-mobile ballistic missiles in September last year. From the photos and videos released by North Korea, North Korea’s railway mobile ballistic missiles include a locomotive nose and two missile launch boxes, each of which is equipped with two Hwasong-11 missiles.
According to the monitoring of the South Korean and American intelligence agencies, the “Hwasong”-11 has been tested many times, with a flying distance of more than 800 kilometers, covering the entire territory of South Korea and parts of Japan. It is a medium-range ballistic missile.
“The missile launch box is modified from the cargo box of a freight train. The top cover can be opened. The shape of the locomotive and missile launch box is very different from that of the North Korean ordinary freight train, and the concealment is very strong.” Missile expert Li Wensheng previously accepted. Peng Mei News (www.thepaper.cn) said in an interview, “The advantages of railway mobile ballistic missiles are fast maneuvering speed and high alertness. They can rely on the railway network to conduct large-scale maneuvers and improve the survivability and strike ability of the missile.”
North Korean railway mobile ballistic missile.Significant escalation of North Korea-US confrontation unlikely
In addition to two ballistic missile test launches, North Korea also conducted two hypersonic missile test launches on the 5th and 11th of this month, which also triggered misjudgments by the U.S. early missile warning system, causing heated discussions.
CNN broke the news on the 14th that on the 11th, North Korea conducted its second hypersonic missile test this month. Because the US missile early warning system initially misjudged that the missile would “hit the United States”, this test launch There was chaos at one point and some flights on the West Coast were grounded for about 15 minutes.
The report pointed out that people familiar with the matter said that more and more tracking data later overturned the initial judgment, with U.S. Northern Command and North American Air Defense Command (NORAD) confirming that the missile posed “no direct threat” to the U.S. mainland. However, a U.S. lawmaker briefed on the incident was unhappy, calling the incident “ugly” and a sign that U.S. Defense Department officials “did not have a good sense of North Korea’s missile capabilities.”
The North Korean Academy of Defense Sciences conducted a test launch of a hypersonic missile on the 11th, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited the test launch event. The KCNA said that the purpose of the test is to finally confirm all the technical characteristics of the newly developed hypersonic missile weapon system. The Korean Central News Agency also introduced the details of the missile test. The hypersonic warhead performed multiple jump-gliding and strong maneuvering maneuvers, and successfully hit the established target far away from 1,000 kilometers of water.
After North Korea’s continuous test-fire of hypersonic missiles, on January 12, US Secretary of State Blinken issued a statement saying that the US government will impose a new round of sanctions in response to North Korea’s successful test-fire of hypersonic missiles. The sanctions include six North Koreans, a Russian and a Russian company.
North Korea tests hypersonic missile.This is the first time the Biden administration has imposed sanctions on North Korea, which has also triggered a strong response from North Korea.
On January 14, the spokesperson of the North Korean Foreign Ministry issued a statement through KCNA, condemning the US government’s sanctions against North Korea’s missile launch. The spokesman said, “The recent development of new weapons by North Korea is only part of the modernization of national defense forces, not targeting a specific country or force, and does not pose a threat to the security of neighboring countries. Nonetheless, the United States considers North Korea’s Relevant legitimate activities are on the agenda of the UN Security Council, separate sanctions are launched, and tensions are deliberately increased.
A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry said that the United States regards North Korea’s legitimate right to self-defense as a problem, which is a clear provocation and robber logic. North Korea will never give up its right to be upright. If the United States is stubborn and adopts such a confrontational attitude, North Korea will have to respond more forcefully and clearly.
Li Chunfu, deputy director of the Asian Studies Center of Nankai University, told The Paper that there were two missile test launches within two weeks. The first two were arranged by North Korea to complete the established hypersonic missile development plan, and the last two ballistic missile tests were a new test for the United States. round of sanctions on the military side of the response.
“The two missile launches strengthened the weight of the speech of the spokesperson of the North Korean Foreign Ministry, and gave an account to the country. At the same time, it also reminded the Biden administration that if it continues to promote new sanctions in the future, North Korea’s military response will be more intense.” Analysis of Li Chunfu think.
“But this kind of military response is relatively restrained, leaving room for the launch of medium and short-range missiles, and no intercontinental missile test and nuclear test.” Li Chunfu said.
Hwasong-11 missile using a tracked launch vehicle.Regarding the U.S. announcement of a new round of sanctions on North Korea, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press conference on January 13 that China always opposes any country imposing unilateral sanctions and so-called so-called unilateral sanctions on other countries in accordance with its domestic laws. Long arm rule. Repeatedly resorting to sanctions will not help resolve the Korean Peninsula issue, but will only intensify confrontational sentiments. China hopes that relevant parties will be cautious in their words and deeds, stick to the right direction of dialogue and consultation, do more things that will help stabilize the situation and build mutual trust, and work together to advance the process of political settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue.
In Li Chunfu’s view, since there was no intercontinental missile test and nuclear test, the US policy toward the DPRK continued its previous policy of paying equal attention to sanctions and diplomatic dialogue. Looking at it now, the US has nothing to do with the DPRK, and the confrontation between the two countries has been greatly escalated. The possibility is very small. North Korea will still launch various medium and short-range missiles, cruise missiles and other weapons in the future, and the US sanctions against the DPRK will not be relaxed.
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