November production 3.2%↑, consumption 1.9%↓

Maximum increase in production 1 year and 5 months, maximum decrease in consumption 1 year and 4 months

Excluding consumption, production and investment indicators are strong… “A decrease in consumption has a base effect”

November production 3.2%↑, consumption 1.9%↓ “The economy is recovering, but uncertainty is high” (CG)

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(Sejong = Yonhap News) Reporter Cha Ji-yeon, Lee Bo-bae, and Kim Da-hye = All industrial production increased by more than 3% from the previous month as production in the manufacturing and service industries rose together in November.

This is the largest increase in one year and five months.

However, despite the phased recovery of daily life (with Corona), consumption fell by nearly 2%, the biggest decline in a year and four months. Statistics Korea analyzed that the base effect was due to the good consumption in the previous month.

According to the industrial activity trend of the National Statistical Office on the 30th, the index of all industrial production (excluding seasonal adjustment, agriculture, forestry, and fishery) in November was 114.4 (2015 = 100), up 3.2% from the previous month.

This is the largest increase since June last year (3.9%).

Industrial activity Increase in production and investment, decrease in consumption (PG)
Industrial activity Increase in production and investment, decrease in consumption (PG)

[김민아 제작] illustration

In October, all industrial production fell 1.9%, the largest decline in a year and a half. The creation of two replacement holidays in October and the base effect on strong production in September were greatly affected.

Due to the base effect of the sharp decline in October production, production rebounded sharply again in November.

Eo Woon-seon, director of economic trend statistics at Statistics Korea, said, “If we remove October, which was affected by irregular factors such as substitute holidays, and compare November with September, industrial production is estimated to have increased by 1.3%. can be viewed as a base effect.”

In November, both manufacturing and service production increased.

Manufacturing output increased by 5.3%, ending the two consecutive months of declines in September (-1.3%) and October (-2.9%). As both the base effect and the easing of semiconductor supply and demand had an effect, automobile (11.3%) production increased the most since January (12.6%), and semiconductor (4.5%) production also increased.

Services production increased 2.0%, turning from a decline in October (-0.4%) to an increase. The lodging/food industry (5.6%), finance/insurance (3.0%), and arts/sports/leisure (8.3%) increased.

Construction and public administration also increased by 2.4% and 5.5%, respectively.

Facility investment rose 10.9%, the largest increase in 7 years since November 2014 (12.0%).

Construction completion also increased by 2.4%.

Myeongdong street
Myeongdong street

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However, the retail sales index (seasonally adjusted) showing consumption trends was 119.1 (2015 = 100), down 1.9% from the previous month.

Although a gradual recovery of daily life was implemented in November, it was the largest decrease since July last year (-6.1%).

“The retail sales index in the previous month was at the highest level since the statistics were compiled, so I think the base effect on it was huge,” said Eh.

The retail sales index for October was 121.4, the highest since January 1995, when statistics on the National Statistical Portal began.

In the November retail sales index, durable goods such as home appliances fell 3.2%, and semi-durable goods such as clothing fell 5.7%. Non-durable goods such as food and beverages rose 0.4%.

The coincident index, which represents the current economy, rose 0.4 points to 101.4, ending the decline in September (-0.1 points) and October (-0.2 points).

However, the cyclical fluctuation value of the leading index, which predicts the future economy, fell 0.4 points to 101.3, continuing the downward trend for five consecutive months since July.

Eo Woon-seon, director of economic trend statistics at the National Statistical Office, said, “The overall production turned to an increase thanks to the brisk mining industry and service industry, and retail sales also decreased. said

Regarding the December indicator, Eh said, “Exports still do not seem to be bad, but quarantine measures have been strengthened again due to the spread of a mutated virus, etc., and consumer sentiment has also turned downward.” I am worried that I will not receive it. Overall, there is a lot of uncertainty.”


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