Oil prices sign of ‘recession economy’ keep an eye on ‘OPEC’ meeting in June to cut more production?

oil price and commodity prices Especially the price of fuel with future contracts, such as coal, gas prices, is one of the indicators that reflect economic conditions. If the price continues to increase, it reflects the economic situation in the future that there is a tendency to continue to grow and have bright prospects. On the other hand, if the price cannot be adjusted upwards The decline continued to reflect the future economic direction.

the world oil price In 2023, there was a continued decrease compared to the previous year by The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil. Downgraded from $120 per barrel in May 2022 to $70 per barrel currently.

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) said in its report on the Thai economy in the first quarter of 2023 and the economic outlook for the year 2023 that The NESDB expects the world oil price this year to average 80-90 dollars per barrel. This is down from the average oil price in 2022 of $96.2 per barrel. In the past, average pricecrude oil price dubaiBetween January 1 – May 11, 2023, it was $80.4 per barrel.

Mr said. Danucha Pitchanan, secretary general of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB).oil priceIn the global market at the moment, moving in the range of 70 – 80 dollars per barrel. And even if the price increases every time, it will not increase more than 1 US dollar per barrel. The fact that oil prices cannot be increased even though oil producing countries (OPEC) have cut oil production since last month. Last April, about 2 million barrels a day. But the price has not increased, which is limited in oil prices, reflecting concerns about the direction.the world economyis slowing down Or it may be a sign that there could be a recession (Recession) with the global economy.

by oil prices andfuel priceThe reduction in inflation directly affects the inflation rate. It is expected that inflation this year will return to the target range of 1 – 3% according to the policy set by the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and the Ministry of Finance together.

The international market analysis team of PTT Public Company Limited has analyzed the oil price situation in that weekly oil price situation analysis report Reach an agreement to extend the debt limit And it will be proposed to the House of Representatives members meeting in time for the deadline on May 31, 2023, sending a positive signal for oil prices.

However, the members of the groupMember of OPEC Plus (OPEC+) Opinion on conflicting oil production policies Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, speaking at the Qatar Economic Forum, warned investors who took short positions (in anticipation of falling oil prices) to beware of losses.

signs if oil prices continue to fall, the group OPEC+ It may consider further reductions in crude oil production at today’s meeting (June 4, 2023) after the meeting on April 3, the OPEC + group decided to reduce total production by 1.66 million barrels per day. Until the end of 2023

While the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Alexander Novak, believes that OPEC + is not likely to propose new measures at the meeting on June 4, because many countries have already voluntarily cut oil production. at the previous meeting and considered Brent crude oil price North Sea to be above $80 per barrel by 2023

corresponds to Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously said that oil prices are approaching economically reasonable levels. (Economic Justification) is a sign that Russia does not want to change its production policy.

For the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is full of tension. after Iran’s testslaunch pad (Khoramshahr 4) floor-to-floor The latest domestically produced version, called Kheibar, has a range of 2,000 km and a payload of 1,500 kg warheads that can cover Israeli bases. and the United States in the Middle East which causes oil prices to tend to rise and moved within a range of $75-80 per barrel. By following the OPEC + meeting on June 4, 2023, will there be additional production policy adjustments or not?