The Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, orOPEC Plus cut production by 2 million barrels per dayIn November, it said the drop in production capacity was OPEC+’s biggest production cut since 2020 and was the second straight month of production cuts.As a result, the price of oil in the global market immediately rose. Reaction to major OPEC Plus production cuts The production cuts made the United States express displeasure.
byMr. Joe Biden, President of the United States Expressing disappointment over the ‘short-sighted’ decision of OPEC Plus, which has cut production quotas “As the global economy is being hurt by Russia’s military attack on Ukraine,” he also ordered the US Department of Energy to drain 10 million of another barrel from its strategic reserves (SPR) in November.stop the rise in oil prices.
AnywayOPEC+ oil production cuts Growing concerns about inflation which will put pressure on the economy and inflation.developed countries to remain stable at a high level
while Thailand isInflation is now starting to fade due to lower oil prices.compared to the previous month Latest inflation in September increased by 6.41%, slowing from August. 2022, an increase of 7.86% following a slowdown in the prices of energy products, housing and cooking equipment. together with the base of the price index used to calculate inflation
AnywayThe price of oil is proportional to the basket of inflation calculations. If energy prices rise, it will lead to higher inflation.The price of energy is the cost that requires the price of goods and services.by the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (NPG.), the Ministry of Commerce said that If OPEC cuts production by 2 million barrels per day, it will lead toThe price of oil is likely to rise due to the current situation. but no more than $110 per barrel. and can lead toinflation rate risefrom the original positionabout 0.2%
The FPO’s full-year inflation forecast for 2022 is based on the assumption of a Dubai crude oil price in the remaining range between 90-110 per barrel, which should cover the impact of the aforementioned cases. Therefore, the inflation rate in 2022. is expected to remain where I ambetween 5.5-6.5%, with a mean value of 6% which is the rate consistent with the economic situation
we must keep an eye on the oil price situation that many parties expect Oil prices in the fourth quarter will be $100 per bar. For example, JPMorgan expects oil prices to reach $100, while Morgan Stanley has also raised its Brent crude price forecast for the first quarter of 2023 to $100 per barrel from $95 per barrel. At current prices, WTI crude oil averages $79.62 per barrel. Brent crude averaged $87.22 per barrel and Dubai crude averaged $85.92 per barrel.
It was assessed that If the price of oil reaches $100, it will affect Thailand’s inflation rate which may rise again.as well as impactThe flood situation affected many agricultural production areas, causing damage, leading to a reduction in the amount of production in the market. causing a shortage of fresh vegetables and rising prices and the Office of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission is expected to see a clear picture in October.