- James Gallagher
- BBC Science and Environment Correspondent
photo source, Getty Images
A familiar situation has returned. Concerns about a new strain of coronavirus infection (COVID-19) are growing.
The most recently discovered mutated virus, ‘Omicron’, is the most serious one ever discovered. One scientist looked at the seriously long list of variants and called it “terrible,” while another described it as the worst variant he’d ever seen.
The mutation was discovered not long ago. Most of the confirmed cases were reported intensively in one region in South Africa (South Africa).
But you can’t be reassured. This is because the possibility that the mutant virus has spread to other regions is emerging.
In response, some are pouring out questions such as how quickly this mutation spreads, how much a vaccine can prevent infection, and how we should respond in the future.
Speculation abounds, but there are few definitive answers.
yes, what do we know?
The name of this new variant is ‘Omicron’, or B.1.1.529 to be exact.
This mutation is incredibly serious. Professor Tulio de Oliveira, director of the Center for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa, said the discovery of “an unusual combination of mutations” was “very different” from the mutations so far.
“This mutation surprised us,” he explained in a press briefing. “It’s an evolutionary leap bigger than we expected, and many mutations have been discovered.”
Professor de Oliveira continued, “There were 50 mutations in total, and there were more than 30 mutations in the spike protein.”
In this new mutation, 10 mutations were found only in the receptor binding region (the part of the virus that first comes into contact with our cells). There were only two delta variants that swept the world.
This level of mutation most likely started in a single patient who did not survive the virus.
Mutation is not necessarily a bad thing. It is important to know what the actual consequences of the mutation are.
What is worrisome is that this mutation is fundamentally different from the original virus that has now emerged from Wuhan, China.
This means that vaccines designed using the original virus may not be as effective against this mutation.
Since some mutations have been previously observed for other mutations, the role can be inferred relatively easily.
For example, the N501Y makes it easier for COVID-19 to spread. Some mutations make it more difficult for the antibody to recognize the virus, while others can make the vaccine less effective.
However, there are also new mutations that we see for the first time.
Professor Richard Lessel, from the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa, said: “This finding raises concerns that the virus may have improved its contagiousness or ability to spread based on human-to-human contact, but above all it could bypass some human immune systems. It raised concerns that there might be.”
But it’s not just hopeless. This is because there are many cases of mutations that looked scary on paper, but went in vain.
Beta mutations, which have the best ability to evade the immune system, were the top concern of people at the beginning of the year.
But it was the fast-spreading delta mutation that threw the world into chaos.
Professor Ravi Gupta of the University of Cambridge said: “The beta mutation evaded all immune systems, but there was no other risk. In contrast, the delta mutation was found to have infectivity and some immune evasion. It suggests that we can have the ability to evade.”
Future lab studies will clarify the facts, but it may be faster to observe how the virus spreads in the real world.
And while it is still too early to draw clear conclusions, there are already signs of concern.
So far, the confirmed cases are 77 in Gauteng, South Africa, 4 in Botswana, and 1 in Hong Kong (travelers from South Africa).
However, there are clues that this mutation is more widespread.
This mutation revealed bizarre results (known as S-gene dropout) in standard tests.
In this case, the mutation can be tracked without performing a complete genetic analysis, and the analysis showed that 90% of confirmed cases in Houteng could already be this mutation.
This suggests that the mutation may already have spread across most of South Africa.
However, it is still unknown whether this mutation spreads faster than the delta mutation, induces more severe symptoms, or how far the vaccine can protect.
It is also unknown what the consequences will be in countries with higher coverage rates than South Africa, which has a full coverage rate of 24%.
In conclusion, we are faced with a mutation that raises significant concerns, and there is a lot we do not know about it, so we should watch it closely and ask deep questions such as when and what to do.
The lesson from the pandemic is that we can’t just wait for all the answers.
