securities company CGS-CIMB Public Company Limited, noted in the analysis (30 September 65), looking at the inversion point of the stock market in this round is The forecast of interest rates is unlikely to be much later. Because it started holding the FED and it is enough to predict how high interest rates are likely to be. As a result, this matter began to relax.
Although there is a new issue Devaluation without dollar It will take time for the economies of these countries to recover. Then the currency will continue to strengthen. Therefore, we believe that, towards the end of October onwards, the SET index should start to stand or go up well. This is because this is the period when tourists start to return and hope to increase the weight of MSCI. Today’s index outlook is expected to remain volatile after the US and regional stock markets continue to decline. From the weight of opinion that some central bank measures have no effect on supporting the currency.
By looking at the decline of the US stock market index during this period. It may fall below 3,600 points (S&P500) and gradually bounce back to play for the 3Q22 budget news.
for recommended investment themes “Buy” Shares in the SET50 are still lagging (laggard) like the market (SET) -2.6% in the last two weeks (2W) and still have a very high side. Previously, it responded to concerns about the Fed’s rate hike from 0.75%, as much as the market had expected.
for such shares The details in the table are as follows:
The underlying stocks that are interesting to invest in include:
SPA : Hold Recommendation : Buy Price Objective : 11.50 baht SPA is expected to have lower losses in 3Q22 and return to profit in 4Q22 due to increased foreign tourists and new customer penetration SPA is believed to gain more market share because it has the company more branches. while the number of players in the Thai spa industry has decreased by 30% in 63-64 years.
CPALL : Hold Recommendation : Buy with target price : 69.00 baht, with the convenience store business showing significant improvement. while the impact of cost pressure is in line with expectations. with the view that the current share price has attractive risks – returns
TU : Hold Recommendation : Buy Price Objective : 21.70 baht Looking at 3Q22 normal profit, strong outlook of 2 billion baht (+9% yoy, +16% qoq) from weak baht and good seafood and feed sales Also, ITC IPO expected in December supporting the TU share price during the 4Q22 season low.
Commercial Banking Group: Maintain Recommendation: Overweight, with BBL the first bank to raise the benchmark interest rate after Thailand raised its policy rate yesterday. and other banks are expected to adjust accordingly. It is estimated that every 25bp increase in the base interest rate (1.5% by the end of year 66) will increase NIM by about 4bp and net profit in 66 by 3.5% We also recommend Overweight in the Thai banking sector by choosing BBL and SCB. is the best choice because it benefits from higher interest rates.
The issues of the week that must be followed are as follows:
October 3: The US releases Construction Spending MoM figures in August from -0.4% the previous month.
October 3: The US releases September ISM Manufacturing figures of 52.8 the previous month.
October 4: The US releases August Factory Orders figures from the previous month of -1.0%.
5 October : OPEC Plus meeting to decide on oil production
5 October : Thailand announced YoY September CPI of 7.86% on the previous month.
October 5 : US releases ADP Employment Change numbers for September from 1.32 lakh the previous month.
October 7: The United States releases September a change in nonfarm payrolls of 3.15 lakh the previous month.
October 7: The US releases a September unemployment rate of 3.7 percent the previous month.
October 7: The US releases August Wholesale Inventories figures.
October 13: The US releases September CPI figures of 8.3% from the previous month.
