Brokers open a dart of 8 stocks that risk making foreigners sell out. From the previous continuous buying while identifying 4 negative factors pressure Fund Flow Out Both the Fed prepares to use a tight policy to curb inflation – the baht depreciates – the price of goods is falling. and economic worries into recession SET stocks this week are down, expect the index frame between 1600-1,650 points, recommend holding cash 10-20%.
KTBST opens a dart of 8 foreign risky stocks for sale
KTBST Securities Public Company Limited revealed that the index frame this week (June 13-17) was at 1,600-1,650 points (last week, 1,632.62 points / -0.91%). The stock market on the first day may be a lot lower. Because the US inflation numbers are very high. And the Fed may raise interest rates to 0.75% this time (previously expected 0.50%) and swing again after the results of its meeting on Thursday (June 16, 65).
However, the factor to watch out for is the president of the US Federal Reserve. will continue to solve inflation problems and high oil prices This could be negative for oil stocks. including the Ukrainian-Russia situation that still looks gloomy and the negotiations failed affect the world economy While China has lockdown in some cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, the opening of the cities is likely to be slow. back to pressure the market again affecting export-maritime stocks
by stocks that foreign investors bought a lot Risk from being sold such as PTTEP KBANK ADVANC BH CPALL BDMS SCB BBL
ASPS identifies 4 factors that pressure money outflow, recommends cash 10-20%
Asia Plus Securities Company Limited (ASPS) revealed through a daily analysis that in June, it was the period when the Federal Reserve (Fed) would adopt a tight New Normal policy, both raising interest rates and reducing the balance sheet to put pressure on investors’ investment. Foreign investors (Fund Flow) flowed out of the Thai stock market 6 out of 7 business days, most recently selling net 9.3 billion baht (mtd), the first month outflow of 65 and seeing more momentum in outflows.
The four factors that pressure fund outflow are as follows:
1. Markets expect the Fed to have an opportunity to use more intense monetary policy. As a result, the interest spread between Thailand and the United States is wider. may result in the MPC There is an opportunity to adjust interest rates accordingly to extract the weak baht and inflation. An acceleration in interest rates is considered one of the factors that depress the market because, according to the mechanism, if the MPC raises interest rates by 0.25%, pressures the SET target down 88 points to 1722 points and raises interest rates by 0.75% pressures the SET target down 240 points, 1570 points.
2. The baht has a chance to depreciate and pressure foreigners to have more chances of losing from the exchange rate. If the Thai-US interest spread is wider pushing money back into debt or higher-yielding assets pressure on the baht tends to depreciate further From the latest it depreciated to 34.84 baht / USD, almost the highest in 5 years and 3 months.
3. The Fed’s interest rate hikes to curb current expensive commodities This may result in commodities prices gradually falling, but the Thai stock market has a proportion of 1 in 3 stocks that are based on Commodity prices, which may pressure the Fund Flow that used to flow into these stocks to slow down.
and 4. Concerns about the economy enter the recession period, starting to see an increase in the chance of an inverted yield curve. Most recently, the US Bond Yield was short-term. Accelerating so fast that the 5-year Bond Yield has overtaken the 30-year and the 2-year Bond Yield 3.06%, which is approaching the 10-year 3.16% (only 10 bps apart). risk assets and the Thai stock market always
All of the factors mentioned above are considered risks that Fund Flow has the opportunity to sell profits in Thai stocks at certain times. And there is a chance to reverse outflow compared to the inflow at the beginning of the year. Our investment strategy recommends cash holdings of 10-20%, while investments suggest bullish interest-shielded stocks like BLA (powered by fast-moving bond yields) and low-volatility capital BH (weak baht), BEM. (benefit from the economic recovery in the country)