Opening the economic forecast for 2022, “This year, it’s burning fake. Next year will really burn” Keep an eye on 6 risk factors

a look at Thailand’s economy

for the perspective of the Thai economy Research Office, CIMB Thai Bank keep a forecastEconomy 2022 at 3.2% and in 2023 at 3.4%, although the Thai economy expanded better than expected in the third quarter when GDP from the same period last year increased by 4.5% (yo), or an expansion from the quarter previous seasonally adjusted to 1.2 % (qoq, sa)

But the main recovery comes from opening up cities and becoming more open to foreign tourism. Profiting businesses are still concentrated in hotels, restaurants and transport, while spending in other groups is not an excellent expansion Maybe with the general income not increasing much But the price of goods increased so high that people careful with their spending.

As well as private consumption Private investment also supports economic recovery. ordering machinery and raw materials including the real estate construction sector However, government spending and investment continued to drag the economy this year.

In addition, the recent recovery picture does not indicate that it is coming from long-standing demand and that it is ready to jump spending or pent-up demand, which looks forward to the possibility that the economy will expand slower. Thailand’s economy to grow 3.7% yoy in the fourth quarter or 0.6% qoq,sa, with exports likely to continue to slow into next year amid slower global growth. Especially in the United States and Europe which will face a recession. China’s export content is likely to be negative next year. both due to weakening global demand disrupting the supply chain and from the economic conflict between the United States and China. which on the whole will inevitably affect Thai exports especially the automotive and parts and electronics group

Meanwhile, processed food and agricultural products should be able to sustain themselves due to Thailand’s competitiveness. As for private investment gradual recovery And should continue to hope to relocate production centers from China to ASEAN, including Thailand next year. especially a groupelectric car industry battery production and renewable energy industry especially solar energy Although the construction of a condominium with a price of less than 3 million baht that is affordable for Thai people should be an opportunity to invest in the real estate sector next year. Especially along the extension of the electric train line

During the period when Thailand’s economy was improving

We may see a reduction in the role of government spending and investment. Government spending may not expand from this year. and should not be able to expect large-scale economic stimulus projects With a limited budget used mainly for the welfare of the poor In addition, if the government spends too much money to stimulate spending, demand can accelerate faster than supply growth . This imbalance will lead to massive inflation. or a lack of confidence in the domestic financial sector. that the government should support economic recovery and focus on income distribution in the next year

Thailand’s policy interest rate direction

Although the economy is fragile and the risk of home debt like this. Interest rate increases will be gradual. In addition, the United States is about to raise interest rates. And it should raise interest rates to the highest level in the 1-2 quarters of next year, so the Bank of Thailand should stop raising interest rates in the middle of the year. This pushes Thailand’s policy rate to 2% in the middle of next year from 1.25% at the end of this year, but Thailand’s inflation rate is still at risk of staying above the top 3% inflation target. rate cut in the second half of next year.

exchange rate reference

The baht tends to fluctuate in line with lower oil price movements. which led to a decrease in the demand for US dollars for spending Although the increase in the interest rate in the United States is expected to improve the investment climate. Although the Fed will continue to raise interest rates next year by The baht is expected to be at 36.00 baht per US dollar by the end of 2022. However, we are concerned about the gap between US and Thai interest rates remaining high in the first half of next year. In addition, the direction of exports is not bright and the income from tourism has not fully returned. This should continue to cause Thailand’s current account deficit until the middle of next year. and should cause the baht to depreciate during that period before appreciating towards the end of the year following a recovery in tourism revenue. and Thailand’s current account surplus We look at the baht at 34.50 baht per US dollar by the end of 2023.