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Election forecasting agencies embarrassed four years ago “This time I win the real Biden”

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US President Donald Trump visits Gastonia, North Carolina, a battlefield on the 21st (local time). Until the day of the election, the strategy of direct contact with voters through field campaigns remains unchanged. The institutions that predicted his defeat four years ago are giving the same prospects this time. [로이터=연합뉴스]

U.S. election forecasting agencies, who were embarrassed after winning the Clinton overwhelming victory four years ago, are predicting the’Biden victory’ again. He looked at’Trump defeat’ and tasted bitter, but he came up with the same prediction, saying, “This time, it’s real.”

“In 2016, there is a lot of support for the floating class and the third candidate”
“Both Clinton and Trump are unfavorable…it’s different now”
“If Texas is contending, Democrats win elections”
A lot of’Shy Trump’ is expected to win big

In the United States, where the number of electoral teams wins by state is important rather than the nationwide total vote, there are separate places that predict election outcomes apart from polls. They made a prediction model with their own know-how, and ^ Five Thirds (538) ^ Cook Political Report ^ Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball are typical.

According to US News and World Report (US News), they all expected the victory of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton from mid-October 2016 to Election Day.

In the case of “Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball”, an institution within Virginia State University, “Clinton will widen the gap” when the election was left on the 19th. As the number of electors secured, 352 Clinton and 173 Trump were presented. However, the result was 232 for Clinton and 306 for Trump.

Kyle Condik, the operator of the agency, said that in 2016, he overlooked the fact that there were many inactive and third candidate support groups. As more and more people hated both of Clinton and Trump, the third candidate took 6% of the votes, and this resulted in Trump being elected.

But This year, there are not as many floating and third candidate supporters as at that time. So, Condik argues, that Biden has a stable edge. According to Reuters and others, the current ratio of floating floors is only 8%, less than half of four years ago.Do. He also said that the support for the performance of the government was not very high, and the results of the 2018 midterm elections, which were sluggish, are also factors predicting Trump’s defeat.

Five-thirds also saw Clinton’s chance of winning at this time four years ago at 85.5%. Currently, Biden’s chances of winning are up to 87% (21 days). Trump’s chance of winning is 13%, and the gap has been widening since September. Five-thirds basically averages the results of public opinion polls and makes predictions by reflecting various economic indicators.

Analyst Nathaniel Rakichi told US News that it should be noted that the gap in approval ratings between the two candidates was larger than in 2016. In addition, Biden is ahead of the battlefields in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and even in Texas, Georgia and Ohio. Rakichi “If a Democratic candidate is competing in Texas, then the election is not a close match.”Said.

Some of the prediction agencies won Trump’s election four years ago. Alan Ricktman is a professor at American University. Looking at the results of the previous presidential election, he made 13 key elements. ^Whether the ruling party won the majority in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections? It is the theory that even if only six of these are missed, the ruling party loses the election that year.

Prof. Litman said that in the 2016 presidential election, there were only six mismatches, and he thought that no matter who came out of the opposition Republican Party, he would be elected. This time, Trump’s re-election was dominant until last year. This year, the economy was staggered by Corona 19, and protests continued over the issue of racial discrimination.Said. He predicted that “after George HW Bush, it will be the first case of a ruling president losing a re-election.”

Most election predictors predicted the victory of Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden, but the Trafalgar Group said, “(President Trump) still has a lot of hidden support. (Local time) revealed. [AP=연합뉴스]

On the other hand, in 2016, Trump’s victory in major contenders was predicted, and some are still expecting reelection success. It is the Trafalgar Group, a polling company.

Chief investigator Robert Kahali said in an interview with Fox News on the 20th that “President Trump has secured at least 270 electors.” The total number of electoral votes in each state is 538, which is said to have already passed the majority. therefore “Maybe even bigger wins depending on how many hidden layers you have“I said.

There is an atmosphere among Trump supporters who are not willing to share their political opinions, and this trend is also revealed in public opinion polls.

Washington = Correspondent Pilkyu Kim [email protected]


Lawrence Stroll is also infected with the new coronavirus / Racing Point F1[F1-Gate.com]

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It was revealed that Lawrence Stroll, the team owner of Racing Point F1, was also infected with the new coronavirus.

Racing Point F1 driver and owner’s son Lance Stroll returned to Switzerland on the morning of the final day of the F1 Eifel Grand Prix and was positive on the new coronavirus test that afternoon. I have announced.

Lance Stroll, who missed the race at the Nürburgring, said he felt he was in a “great situation” and was planning to compete in the F1 Portuguese Grand Prix this weekend.

Later, it was revealed that team owner and father Lawrence Stroll was also infected with the new coronavirus.

A spokeswoman for Racing Point F1 explained that Lawrence Stroll visited Aston Martin’s UK headquarters on Thursday, October 8 and was negative when tested on Friday.

After that, Lawrence Stroll, who returned to Switzerland, conducted another test according to the Racing Point F1 protocol on the night of October 11th (Sunday) and reportedly tested positive.

Lawrence Stroll did not participate in the F1 Russian Grand Prix on September 27th or the F1 Eifel Grand Prix on October 11th. He is asymptomatic and has completed a compulsory 10-day quarantine period in accordance with Swiss quarantine regulations.

Lawrence Stroll, who hasn’t raced since the F1 Tuscan Grand Prix in Mugello last month, is now back at work.

Given their respective timelines, Lawrence Stroll and Lance Stroll were not in contact on the weekend of the F1 Eifel GP before the positive reaction.

Racing Point F1 announced a statement on Wednesday, October 21 that team representative and CEO Otmar Safnauer has clarified the timeline for Lance Stroll’s new coronavirus test and followed all protocols. Insist.

Otmar Safnauer confesses that doctors did not advise that Lance Stroll’s symptoms, including upset stomach, should be tested for the new coronavirus.

“He didn’t think his symptoms were showing the new coronavirus and consulted with a doctor, but he wasn’t advised that a test was needed. Based on this clinical evaluation, the FIA ​​at the time was about the nature of the disease. I didn’t have to notify him, “said Otmar Safnauer.

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Category: F1 / Racing point

Will you take a holiday next season? Lue: Will discuss with the medical team | NBA | DONGTW News

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The new head coach of the Los Angeles Clippers, Ty Lue, talked about his plans for the new season in an interview. When asked about the lovely load management and whether it is possible to continue the implementation next season, Lue did not give a clear answer. He wanted to discuss this issue with the medical staff first.

Lue said that he will discuss with the team’s medical team whether Cute will continue to implement load management next season.

According to previous reports, some people inside the Clippers have expressed their disappointment with the team’s handling of cuteness and the special treatment he has received. Although the Clippers players have since denied the authenticity of these reports, there are obviously problems with the Clippers’ chemistry, which is reflected in their performance after the rematch.

Speaking of the Clippers did not have a good chemical response last season, is there really a contradiction within the team, as the outside world has said. Lue said: “There is no off-court problem, and there is no problem between players who don’t like each other. Last season, it was only because of injuries and various absences that they couldn’t always run in together. The whole process was interrupted by injuries. When you talk about chemistry The reaction, and more importantly, the addition of PG13, he had surgery on his shoulder, he missed the entire training camp, and missed the first 11 games of the season. Cute can not participate in the entire training camp, and then we lost the mad dog Beverley, Our lineup is always incomplete.”

Speaking of the leadership of the team, Lue said: “Leadership needs to be played by me, cute, PG13, Mad Dog and Lou Willams. All of us will keep learning from each other. The key to everything is communication.”

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Take the lead in getting a closer look at the new Nike Dunk Low color “Medium Curry”

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Nike Sportswear’s much-loved Dunk Low has recently launched many interesting color schemes that have caused panic buying, such as “Lemon Wash” and “Ceramic”. Now, Nike has once again brought a new color scheme. The Nike Dunk Low named “Medium Curry” combines superior suede fabrics and soft milk tea colors. It will undoubtedly be a coveted work. The upper of Nike Dunk Low “Medium Curry” is mainly composed of suede in two colors, namely refreshing white and brown, while the Nike Swoosh and heel are presented in fresh Chena colors. The combination of the three presents a sharp contrast.

The official release date and price of Nike Dunk Low “Medium Curry” have not yet been officially announced, but it is likely to be launched later this fall. Those who are interested, please continue to pay attention to HYPEBEAST’s follow-up report.

In addition, you can also pay attention to other news:

  1. COMME des GARÇONS x Salomon New joint ride series shoes released
  2. Air Jordan 1 High OG New color scheme “Paisley“release

Three Kingdoms theme RPG web game “Three Kingdoms Gumoni” is about to launch to search for ancient classics-Bahamut

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[The following content provides original materials for manufacturers]

gamecar truck game announced today that it has obtained the right to operate the Three Kingdoms RPG web game “Three Kingdoms Gumoni” in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau. The official today is the first to expose game information.

【game introduction】

The game style is mainly based on the Three Kingdoms period, with exquisite style and rich content. Players obtain resources, train generals, build army through various gameplay methods, and compete for rankings with many players. This game is not just about numerical crushing. Your training ideas, the matching of generals, and the cooperation with army members are the key to the gameplay.

[Game scene introduction]

Restore the real classical buildings and battlefields, players can appreciate the prosperity and depression of the Three Kingdoms period during the game, and feel the bravery of military commanders and the charm of women in the battlefield.

[Introduction of General Strategy]

Each player can play three generals, and different generals have different combat skills. A reasonable combination of generals skills can increase the player’s winning rate, adjust the generals’ speed and skill training, and arrange the most practical lineup for you. Use skills/lineup to create the strongest teamwork for yourself.

[Introduction to the system of seeking generals]

Searching for ancient classic military generals can improve the combat effectiveness of the team. Upgrading the ranks and skills of the generals can greatly enhance the fighting abilities of the generals, and the famous and well-known treasures of the ancient middle ears can reward players’ favorite generals.

Do you understand the various systems? “Three Kingdoms Gumani” today also has an opening event waiting for you to go online and play together!

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[2020국감] Naver CEO Han Sung-suk “Shopping search is also part of the search…it is not a manipulation”

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Intellectual search and shopping close communication, algorithm manipulation

[서울=뉴스핌] Reporter Ji-wan Kim = “The reason shopping CIC looks at search data is to see how shopping data affects search quality, not for other businesses.”

Naver CEO Han Seong-suk refuted this when the Democratic Party lawmaker Oh Hyung Oh raised the possibility of manipulating the search results during a national audit of the Political Affairs Committee held at the National Assembly on the 22nd.

On the day, Rep. Oh said, “Naver is in close communication with the search group and shopping CIC (in-house independent company). If they communicate closely, how to manipulate the Naver search algorithm to search for Naver’s’Shop N’ We will be able to discuss whether we can increase it.”

Rep. Oh pointed out that “Naver has no internal control of the company in favoring other business units.”

Rep. Oh said, “Naver is sending out manipulated search results to consumers in certain businesses. Through this, it blocks connections with competitors, limiting consumer options. General search market dominance is spreading and influencing shopping searches.” “It will be,” he criticized.

In response, Han said, “The Naver search group and shopping CIC are communicating,” while acknowledging the facts, but dismissed the suspicion of manipulation by saying, “This is because shopping search is also part of the search.”

[서울=뉴스핌] Reporter Lee Han-gyeol = Naver CEO Han Seong-suk is present as a witness at a comprehensive audit of the government affairs of the Political Affairs Committee at the National Assembly on the 22nd. 2020.10.22 [email protected]

Rep. Oh also argued that “to prevent conflicts of interest in shopping and general search, we must install a blocking screen for general search and shopping search,” and said, “If you do not observe this, you will have to claim punitive damages or cancel the portal license itself.” Urged arrangements.

He referred to the case of regulations on blocking information exchange when simultaneously operating investment trading and financial investment trust businesses in the financial investment industry, and stressed that Naver does not have such an institutional arrangement at all.

In this regard, the head of Fair Trade Commission Cho Sung-wook reiterated the principled answer, saying, “In the Google case, the US House of Representatives is also having similar concerns with us,” and “We must deeply consider whether it is possible within the Korean legal system.”

In addition to this, there have been ceaseless criticisms on the manipulation of news algorithms in this gukgam.

Rep. Yoon Jae-ok said, “In recent Naver news topics, there was a typo in’Keseong Industrial Complex Kumgangsan Mt. Tourism Resumption’ as’Geumgang Mt. The news search term was revised to’Naver fine of 26.7 billion won’ the next day.

Representative Han explained, “There was a typo in the news for the search term for the resumption of Mt. Geumgang tourism in the Kaesong Industrial Complex.”

The issue of Naver’s ethics also came to the fore. Rep. Yoon asked, “Naver has been criticized a lot for stealing ideas from startups or plagiarism,” and asked, “There are patent rights infringement lawsuits every year. What do you think about the negative image?”

CEO Han Sung-sook briefly replied, “I apologize for a couple who are clearly in error.”

[email protected]

Honor the heroes and carry forward the great spirit of resisting U.S. aggression and aiding Korea-China Daily

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General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized that the victory of the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea is a victory of justice, a victory of peace, and a victory of the people.

In this war to defend the home and the country, more than 300,000 heroes, including Yang Gensi, Huang Jiguang, and Qiu Shaoyun, and nearly 6,000 collectives of heroes emerged. They are worthy of being the heroic sons and daughters of the Chinese nation, they are worthy of being strong defenders of the security of the motherland and world peace, and they are worthy of the honorable title of “the cutest people”. However, there are still many heroes who died on the battlefield in a foreign country. For various reasons, their relatives still do not know their whereabouts.

In recent years, many activities and deeds of seeking relatives for volunteer martyrs have emerged throughout the country. These good deeds have embodied the Chinese nation’s humanistic tradition of pursuing long-term care and respecting heroes, and have shocked and shocked people’s hearts. Only by advocating heroes can heroes be produced, and heroes can be produced by striving to be heroes. Today, when the motherland is becoming stronger and stronger, the people have not forgotten the volunteer martyrs. History always remembers the volunteer martyrs.

Every volunteer hero is the creator of the great spirit of resisting U.S. aggression and aid to Korea, and every search for relatives is the inheritance and promotion of the great spirit of resisting U.S. aid to Korea.

To carry forward the great spirit of resisting U.S. aggression and aiding Korea, we must carry forward the patriotism that the interests of the motherland and the people are above all else, and the patriotism that works for the dignity of the motherland and the nation. The Chinese People’s Volunteers held high the banner of justice and resolutely set out to defend the home and the country. They are the backbone of the country and the defender of the people. The motherland in the new era is prosperous and prosperous, but it is more necessary for someone to carry forward with it to guard the years. Patriotism has always been the spiritual force that firmly unites the Chinese nation and is a strong cornerstone for realizing the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It must be passed on from generation to generation.

To carry forward the great spirit of resisting U.S. aggression and aiding Korea, we must carry forward the spirit of revolutionary heroism that is brave and tenacious and forgotten to die. In those days, countless warriors got up from a pool of blood and rushed towards the enemy after being wounded, and even blocked the enemy’s muzzle with their bodies. This spirit is singular and magnificent. On the new journey of realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, there are destined to conquer many “Loushan Pass” and “Lazikou”. The heroic and tenacious style must not be lost, and the spirit of giving up life and forgetting death must be possessed.

To carry forward the great spirit of resisting US aggression and aiding Korea, we must carry forward the spirit of revolutionary optimism that defies hardships and hardships and always maintains high morale. In the past 70 years, we have traversed thousands of thousands of rivers with the spirit of revolutionary optimism and achieved great victories. Looking to the future, we must work hard, cultivate new opportunities in the crisis, open new games in the changing situation, and move towards the great goal.

To carry forward the great spirit of resisting U.S. aggression and aiding Korea, we must carry forward the revolutionary loyalty spirit of selfless dedication to fulfill the mission entrusted by the motherland and the people. The Volunteer Army is loyal to the party, the motherland, and the people, and has fulfilled the ideals and beliefs of protecting the home and the country. Today’s party members and leading cadres must be loyal and clean, and loyalty always comes first. It is necessary to constantly control the party constitution and party rules and disciplines, examine one’s ideals, beliefs, thoughts, words and deeds, and always maintain political true qualities.

To promote the great spirit of resisting the US and aiding Korea, we must promote the internationalist spirit of striving for peace and justice for mankind. The world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. Protectionism and unilateralism are intensifying, bullying and power politics are reckless, and economic globalization and multilateralism are facing challenges. Our country is in a critical period of realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and we must unswervingly follow the path of peaceful development. To always be a staunch force for safeguarding world peace is not only a declaration of China’s principled position and determination, but also a concrete action for China to fulfill its international obligations for a long time.

Snake bites when caught in fish mouth; Strange incident,

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The snake bit the fisherman who put his hand in the mouth of the fish caught in the bait. Dan Boudrick, a Tennessee fisherman, had a strange experience. Dan was bitten by a snake inside when he put his hand in its mouth to catch the fish trapped in the bait.

Dan explained that he was scared to see the snake at first because it wasn’t too much when he came to Tennessee. Fear of being bitten by a poisonous snake. But later it was discovered that it was bitten by a non-venomous snake that lives in the water.

The news and image was shared by Tennessee Wildlife Resources with a warning to be careful when handling fish. This picture was taken by Dan himself. The snake was trapped in the fish’s throat. The conclusion is that the snake may have got stuck in the throat when the fish was swallowed. Dan said he saw the snake peek out of the fish’s mouth while taking the picture.

English Summary: Tennessee fisherman catches bass holding snake in its mouth

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(ipl 2020) | Despite winning the toss, the batting selection went wrong; This is what Morgan said after the embarrassing defeat

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Eon Morgan was taken over by Dinesh Karthik halfway through the IPL to help Kolkata win the toss. But it was a big shame waiting for Ian Morgan with last night’s match. Not only did KKR suffer a humiliating eight-wicket defeat against RCB, but the KKR team won the toss and elected to bat first, losing eight wickets for just 84 runs!

“Makoto Otake Golden Radio! ]Yuzuki Muroi and his wife first appeared in the media! | Jay Tame

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Former Niigata prefectural governor, doctor and attorney Ryuichi Yoneyama, who married Yuzuki Muroi, who is a partner on Friday, in the afternoon of Nippon Cultural Broadcasting on October 23, “Makoto Otake Golden Radio! 』(Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 3:30 pm on weekdays) has been decided to appear live. This is the first time that the couple have made a live appearance in the media.

Mr. Yoneyama will appear in “Otake Main Dish” from 2:20 to 50 pm. This is the main corner of the program where Makoto Otake, the program personality, and Yuzuki Muroi, a partner on Friday, listen carefully to the guests.

Mr. Yoneyama responded to the staff’s desire to perform as a couple with Muroi, and decided on this day.

In the program, we will ask Mr. Yoneyama about the Suga administration’s one-month summary and commentary on various current affairs, as well as about Mr. Yoneyama’s and Muroi’s marriage, mutual impressions, and Mr. Yoneyama’s future activities. I’m planning.

[Program overview]
◆ Title: “Makoto Otake Golden Radio! 』
◆ Broadcast time: Every Monday to Friday from 1:00 pm to 3:30 pm Live broadcast
◆ Personality: Makoto Otake
◆ Assistant: Hideaki Ota (Nippon Cultural Broadcasting announcer)
◆ Program Partner: (Monday) Asagaya Sisters (Tuesday) Ai Haruna (Wednesday) Mitsu Dan (Thursday) Yasuko Mitsuura (Friday) Yuzuki Muroi

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