U.S. election forecasting agencies, who were embarrassed after winning the Clinton overwhelming victory four years ago, are predicting the’Biden victory’ again. He looked at’Trump defeat’ and tasted bitter, but he came up with the same prediction, saying, “This time, it’s real.”
“In 2016, there is a lot of support for the floating class and the third candidate”
“Both Clinton and Trump are unfavorable…it’s different now”
“If Texas is contending, Democrats win elections”
A lot of’Shy Trump’ is expected to win big
In the United States, where the number of electoral teams wins by state is important rather than the nationwide total vote, there are separate places that predict election outcomes apart from polls. They made a prediction model with their own know-how, and ^ Five Thirds (538) ^ Cook Political Report ^ Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball are typical.
According to US News and World Report (US News), they all expected the victory of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton from mid-October 2016 to Election Day.
In the case of “Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball”, an institution within Virginia State University, “Clinton will widen the gap” when the election was left on the 19th. As the number of electors secured, 352 Clinton and 173 Trump were presented. However, the result was 232 for Clinton and 306 for Trump.
Kyle Condik, the operator of the agency, said that in 2016, he overlooked the fact that there were many inactive and third candidate support groups. As more and more people hated both of Clinton and Trump, the third candidate took 6% of the votes, and this resulted in Trump being elected.
But This year, there are not as many floating and third candidate supporters as at that time. So, Condik argues, that Biden has a stable edge. According to Reuters and others, the current ratio of floating floors is only 8%, less than half of four years ago.Do. He also said that the support for the performance of the government was not very high, and the results of the 2018 midterm elections, which were sluggish, are also factors predicting Trump’s defeat.
Five-thirds also saw Clinton’s chance of winning at this time four years ago at 85.5%. Currently, Biden’s chances of winning are up to 87% (21 days). Trump’s chance of winning is 13%, and the gap has been widening since September. Five-thirds basically averages the results of public opinion polls and makes predictions by reflecting various economic indicators.
Analyst Nathaniel Rakichi told US News that it should be noted that the gap in approval ratings between the two candidates was larger than in 2016. In addition, Biden is ahead of the battlefields in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and even in Texas, Georgia and Ohio. Rakichi “If a Democratic candidate is competing in Texas, then the election is not a close match.”Said.
Some of the prediction agencies won Trump’s election four years ago. Alan Ricktman is a professor at American University. Looking at the results of the previous presidential election, he made 13 key elements. ^Whether the ruling party won the majority in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections? It is the theory that even if only six of these are missed, the ruling party loses the election that year.
Prof. Litman said that in the 2016 presidential election, there were only six mismatches, and he thought that no matter who came out of the opposition Republican Party, he would be elected. This time, Trump’s re-election was dominant until last year. This year, the economy was staggered by Corona 19, and protests continued over the issue of racial discrimination.Said. He predicted that “after George HW Bush, it will be the first case of a ruling president losing a re-election.”
On the other hand, in 2016, Trump’s victory in major contenders was predicted, and some are still expecting reelection success. It is the Trafalgar Group, a polling company.
Chief investigator Robert Kahali said in an interview with Fox News on the 20th that “President Trump has secured at least 270 electors.” The total number of electoral votes in each state is 538, which is said to have already passed the majority. therefore “Maybe even bigger wins depending on how many hidden layers you have“I said.
There is an atmosphere among Trump supporters who are not willing to share their political opinions, and this trend is also revealed in public opinion polls.
Washington = Correspondent Pilkyu Kim [email protected]