From the SET in the City 2022 seminar, find new opportunities Let you invest with confidence in the period of rising interest rates Analyze investment trends and perspectives so you don’t fall out of trend. Organized by the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)
In the topic “adjusting the portfolio, organizing the army, accepting the rising interest rate”, find ideas for organizing and adjusting the investment portfolio. Which assets should get or be removed from the investment portfolio? Mr.Paiboon Nalinthrangkun Prime MinisterInvestment Analysts Association (IAA) and CEO of TISCO Securities He said that the investment direction in 2023 is in the period of decline in the global economic cycle, high inflation, rising interest rates. It is a difficult problem of investing in 20 years, investors may be in a difficult situation. Foreign investment must be more careful and selective.
Next year, “Thai stocks” are the hero – the hope of investors.
So next year, look outThai stock market” He will be a hero and the hope of Thai investors Fortunately, the Thai economy is in a cycle of progress. world economic park
“Many economic analysts expect Thailand’s GDP next year will grow 3-4% or more than this year for sure. And next year, Thailand’s economy will return to expanding at the same point before the covids”
Keep an eye on “tourism” to face Thailand’s economy next year.
Paiboon expects there is a high probability that foreign tourists will return to reach 20 million or more, or an average of 2 million per month next year. accounting for double the growth from this year. It should reach the level of 10 million people, from now on 1.3 million people per month. And likely to increase to 2 million per month during the last two months of this year, even if the global economy slows down next year. People all over the world are starting to save on spending on goods. but return to travel more now you can see Thai and foreign Tourists Tourism in Thailand is very busy during this period.
Still confident that the Bank of Thailand will gradually increase the index. Inflation is under control
At the same time, we also believe that there is a gradual increase in policy interest rates Bank of Thailand (BOT). Thailand’s inflation still under control This will not affect the recovery of Thailand’s economy next year.Currently, core inflation remains at a low level of 2-3% and headline inflation has fallen from 8% to 6% Thailand’s policy interest rate is expected to rise slightly next year. at 1.75% from this year at 1.25%.
liquidity still high Fund flows support year-end index to 1,700 points
Meanwhile, in the future, Mr Paiboon believes that liquidity in the market is still high. Even if the Fed has made a QT to take out a hundred billion dollars. But it should take about 4 years to remove all the liquidity that has been put in during the covid period.
Therefore, foreign capital flows (fund flows) are expected to continue to flow back to support the Thai stock market next year. Continuing from this year, although the market is volatile, we still see money flow coming into the Thai stock market reaching 160 billion baht, or the highest in 20 years, flowing almost every month. Except for a month, but still flows back again. Supporting the SET index back to 1,600 points as usual and during the 4th quarter of this year there was an upside. Make the end of this year the index has a chance to adjust up to 1,650-1,700 points, it is more possible.
referring to Thai stocks next year Many supporting factors, hope for the index to add 100 points
Forecast for the Thai stock market next year, Mr. Paiboon believes that the SET index has a small chance of downside (downside) and a chance of upside (upside) about 5-10%, it may not seem like much , but the index has a chance to adjust Up to 100 points is considered a good opportunity for investors. If tourism improves strongly, it can still add face to face.
of factors supporting Thailand’s stock market next year The economy has recovered to grow back to the same point before the year of Covid. The operating results of listed companies (Co., Ltd.) are still up. Expect listed company profits to grow by 10% or more next year due to increased productivity. have the ability to make a profit Interest rates are not high. Flow-fund inflows continued to attract from this year onwards.
4 investment themesThai Stocks PTT-Bank-Energy-Open Power Works
At the same time, Mr Paiboon recommends investing in Thai stocks next year with 4 interesting themes for Thai stocks: 1. Themesopen country stocks Re-opening is also the strongest and most prominent theme, eg hotel, travel, consumer, but it is important to consider stocks that have not risen too high.
2. Themebank stock It has also benefited from a gradual increase in the interest rate and the Thai economy will recover well next year.
3. Themeenergy stocks Still have to stick to the investment portfolio to hedge the risk. Uncertainty of war between Russia and Ukraine There is a chance that the war will be worse or better.
4. Themepower plant shares There is an opportunity to grow from building additional power plants. Support the use of electric vehicles (EV) according to the global trend
“Japanese stocks” attractive, production is growing
on the marketforeign stocks Looking at the Japanese stock market Although the yen depreciation is the intention of the authorities to take care of the Japanese economy, if it reaches the point of recovery, everything will return. while in the Japanese business sector there is still long-term investment for continued exports. such as exporting robots and machines
“US stocks” picks defensive stocks “Healthcare – Utilities”
in the US stock market The price of the shares has fallen considerably. But he has to pick defensive and very liquid stocks like healthcare and utilities. If it is a long-term investment of 5 years or more, you can invest gradually today. in world stock investment you must choose a country that still has opportunities for long-term growth However, invest in US stocks and world stocks If the market is not clearly up suggesting that investors are in a hurry
Note that investment grade “debentures” yield excellent 3-4%.
When it comes to investing in a bond, it is considered attractive. From US bond yields up to 4%, short term to 4.7% and the opportunity to reach 5%, leading to the opportunity to benefit from the difference (capital gains) as well and invest in bonds. Investment Grade (investment grade) attractive, still giving good returns of 3-4%, better than interest on deposits. And in the short term, the market is still volatile. Suggesting that investors still need to hold some cash in the portfolio
Recommends keeping an eye on 4 risk factors that will weigh on Thai stocks next year
Mr Paiboon said the risk factors could weigh on the Thai stock market next year. they must be closely monitored, including:
1. Will domestic inflation fall? From the market began to challenge the Bank of Thailand more and more that Is it too late to raise the policy interest rate? If inflation in the country continues to rise Because next year’s economy has returned to growth of 4%, inflation has already risen. Therefore, we can see that Thailand’s policy interest rate, which rises at 0.5% is still possible.
2. Next year, we have to keep track of the number of foreign tourists who come back as expected or not. If not as expected, it will hold the Thai economy back during the recovery period and there is also a risk that the world’s largest economy will go into recession.
3. Political factors in the country to have elections next year If the election results are not accepted in accordance with the rules a new risk factor is added
4. Foreign factors You still have to keep an eye on whether the Fed will hold interest rates at the level. How long do you keep 5%? Is US inflation in control? I think if US inflation is out of control there is still a risk that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates more than the market expects. also putting pressure on stock market volatility
“We expect the Fed to raise the US interest rate to 5-5.2% next year and should control US inflation, down 4-6% from 8% this year. The Fed indicated no interest rate cuts .and will continue to raise interest rates In order to pull US inflation down to a level of 2% as targeted, depending on how quickly the Fed can do it, which looks like next year is still difficult. So the market can continue to fluctuate.”
