Brokers are looking at Thai stocks this week, trading turnover is thin, just 30 billion baht a day before the long Songkran holiday. Stick to China-US inflation If it declines, it will benefit the stock market, focusing on selective buying stocks with certain positive factors.
Paradorn Tieranapramot Mr. Deputy Director of Research, Asia Plus Securities revealed thatThailand stock market situation this weekwith Nation Online that in the pastSongcranTurnover will drop by 20% from 4-5 billion baht to around 30 billion baht, which is normal. Because it is close to the long Songkran holiday mode and there are only 3 trading days, but after the Songkran festival, trading will recover.
The factors that must be monitored areChinese inflationMarch, published on April 11, is expected to be flat YOY from February at 1% YOY and on April 12, US inflation for March will be published. It is estimated at 5.2% YOY from 6% YOY in February, with inflation likely to fall. The drop in oil prices can have a positive effect on the market.
The index movement frame is at 1,555-1,595 points. The investment strategy focuses on selected buy stocks with specific positive factors in 3 themes: 1. Stocks benefit from intense politics, such as CK, target price 20.90 baht, SAWAD target price 51 baht.
2. Stocks that receive positive results from lower China-US inflation, such as ORI, target price 13.15 baht, CPALL, target price 61.25 baht, and 3. Stocks that benefit from the summer, such as IVL, target price 33.50 baht and CBG, price target 110 baht.
Mr Watan Jitsomnuek, Director of the Strategic Analysis Department, Pie Securities (PI), discussed the direction of the stock market this week with Nation Online which revealed the United States last Fridaynon-farm employmentat 236 lakh jobs, better than analyst expectations of 228 lakh along with an unemployment rate of 3.5%, better than analyst expectations of 3.6%.
But internal components found that almost all industries saw a drop in employment after the report found that CME FED WATCH increased interest rates by 0.25% to experience 71.2% from just 50% previously, which is negative for the market. stock in the short term.
However, strong Labor data alone may not have enough weight to keep the stock market on track, as investors will wait for a follow-up on Wednesday’s US inflation, which Bloomberg expects at 5.2%YoY 0.2% MoM. This is the lowest level since October 2021 If reported below market estimates, it will be a positive factor for stock markets and investor interest comments may be lower.
Considering between CPI, SNP, it is found that the average difference is only 0.62%, and SNP recently indicated at 5%, it is considered possible that CPI will be adjusted down to test the level of 5% (+ / -) as estimated by the market The latest US interest rate was 5%, bringing the real interest rate to 0, close to the historical average of 1%, indicating that the Fed raising interest rates faster and more aggressively.
As for other factors this week, follow 1. The US Producer Price Index Thursday evening, Bloomberg estimated that 3% YoY, if lower than market estimates, will be a supporting factor for the stock market.
2. US Retail Sales on Friday, Bloomberg Estimate of -0.5% MoM, Believes Lower Numbers Will Put Recession Pressure and Negative Stocks.
As for the SET INDEX, this week it is possible to move in a limited range because it goes into the Songkran Festival (SET is open until Wednesday and will open again on Monday next week), so only The move is 1,560 – 1,595 points. focus on trading as there are many risk factors ahead Best picks: BGRIM (TP 40), CPALL (TP 72), BJC (TP 45).
