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▲ Source: Plan B Twitter © CoinReaders |
Although Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to recover $60,000, PlanB, a famous cryptocurrency trader with about 1.57 million followers, recently tweeted, “Bitcoin S2F (Stock-to-Flow) , Stock-to-Flow) forecasts of $98,000 for November and $135,000 for December are still valid.”
The S2F model is an indicator of the total supply of scarce resources such as gold divided by the amount of resources produced annually. The S2F model assumes that the more scarce a specific resource has, the higher its value. In the case of Bitcoin, it is predicted that the price will rise as scarcity increases with each halving that occurs every four years.
Plan B, which has accurately predicted the price of Bitcoin by applying the S2F model, predicted with astonishing accuracy that Bitcoin would close near $47,000 in August and close around $43,000 in September, with a closing price of only 3% in October. But it was overrated.
According to the S2F model, Bitcoin is expected to close above $98,000 in November and reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
However, on the 24th (local time), Huobi Research, a research organization affiliated with the Chinese cryptocurrency exchange Huobi Global, said on its official blog on the 24th (local time), “The Bitcoin price prediction model S2F developed by Planby, a famous investor and analyst in the cryptocurrency industry, does not reflect macro factors. “, he pointed out.
A Huobi Research official said, “PlanB’s S2F model received the market’s attention when it succeeded in predicting the price of Bitcoin in the first to third quarters. Unfortunately, the November price analysis of the S2F model (reaching $98,000 BTC) will fail for the first time. expected”.
He continued, “The reason the S2F model failed is because it ignored the influence of external macro factors on the calculation formula that constitutes the model. Monetary policy with an easing stance was key. The S2F model failed to predict the price of Bitcoin in November due to these limitations.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC), the No. 1 cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is recording about $57,291 based on CoinMarketCap as of 3:30 pm on the 25th (Korean time). Currently, the market capitalization of Bitcoin is $1.818 trillion, and the dominance (share of market capitalization) is 41.8%.
