The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce reveals 100 days after “Min Aung Lai” revolutionized Myanmar’s GDP in 64 years, negative 10%, fearing dragging Thai exports, shrinking 1.3%, losing 9.6 billion
On May 27, 2021, Assoc. Prof. Atpisanwanich, Director of the Center for International Trade Studies. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce revealed that the impact of the revolution in Myanmar 100 days after the fourth revolution by Senior General Min Aung Lai (MIN AUNG HLAING) expects the GDP in Myanmar in 2021 to be – 10% to -20%
In the first quarter of 2021, Myanmar contracted -2.5%, lost FDI $ 6 billion, there were 6 hundred thousand unemployed people, 3.4 million people without food, and the Kyat depreciated by 18% (24/5/2021). ) And Myanmar’s household income dropped 83%, oil prices increased 15%, retail rice prices increased by 35% and bottled palm oil prices increased by 20%, and Myanmar companies that stopped operating were 83% of Myanmar companies. Japan 68.4 and Western companies 67%
“Currently, the value of Thai exports to Myanmar is expected to be -51.6% to – 82.2% or a value of 60,670 to 96,590 million baht, resulting in the total export value of Thailand -0.8% to -1.3%.”
For 10 groups of risky industrial products that have a significant decrease in their export value, such as refined oil Machinery, steel, fabric, plastic products, rubber products, motorcycles and components, pharmaceuticals, computers and ceramics.
Meanwhile, there were 15 items of risky consumer goods whose export value dropped significantly, such as beverages, cosmetics, soaps and skin treatment products, sugar, animal feed, vegetable oils, television, shrimp, shoes, rice products. And tableware
“The country with the most declining export value to Myanmar is China, followed by ASEAN, India, Japan, South Korea and the United States. If only ASEAN countries with a significant decrease in exports to Myanmar are Thailand. Singapore and Vietnam “
It is expected that FDI in Myanmar in 2021 will be -76.1% to -85.4% or lost 202,902 million baht to 227,698 million baht.
“Myanmar’s FDI drop will be in the energy sector, the real estate industry. Oil and gas transportation and industrial estates, etc., with the opportunity to move investment from Myanmar to Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia and Thailand. “