Source: CCB Futures Author: CCB Futures
The subject of the research report
1. Market review and operational recommendations
September 13,iron oreThe closing price of the main stone contract was 728.5 yuan/ton, up 1.11% since last Friday, and has risen for 3 consecutive days. The spot price was 773.67 yuan/ton, down 0.1 % of last week, and the basis difference was 45.17 yuan/ton fell back.
Iron ore is supported by the fundamentals under the resumption of production by steel mills in the short term, and the downside is relatively limited. The latest basic data show that the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate continue to rise, the average daily output of hot metal and crude steel continues to increase, and port inventories have decreased. The price of iron ore disc is expected to is supported by fundamentals before the end of September.
However, it is worth noting that the downstream real estate is still relatively weak, and the operating rate of the blast furnace is expected to drop significantly during the National Day.
In addition, since the beginning of April, the US dollar index has facilitated a relatively high negative correlation between the price of iron ore.
In summary, iron ore is currently relatively strong under the support of fundamentals, but due to overall weak end demand and the room for the Fed to raise interest rates, the medium and long term ore prices are still is bearish, and the left The strategy can be considered before the National Day Situations appropriately high.
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