Most recently (June 8, 2023), the International Climate Research Institute (IRI), Columbia University and the Climate Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States, have predicted that the probability of El Niño Another increase compared to the predicted results during May 23, exceeding 90%, dragging on until at least March 24 (Figure 2, left, red bar) and research by CPC (NOAA) expects that the strength of El More moderate Nino (> 1.0 ° C) with a probability of occurrence of 72-84% from August 23-Mar. 24 (Figure 2, right, purple bars) and the strength of Severe El Niño (>1.5 °C) has the highest probability of 56% during November. 23 – January 24 (right image 2, dark red bars).
Figure 3 shows two indices (ONI and IOD index) from the global model. The forecasters agree that El Niño will occur quite certainly and will accelerate from now on to a severe level on August 23 (1.7°C) and increase to 2.0°C on October 23.
They found that the El Niño phenomenon tends to cause Thailand to be drier than usual during the period. March-July and hotter than usual during October-June, while the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that the El Niño phenomenon tends to cause Southern Thailand to be hotter and drier than usual from December to February, while other regions will be warmer than usual from December to February.
