Replenishment before a holiday or lower iron ore market varies in a narrow range

Source: Sinosteel Futures Author: Sinosteel Futures

The subject of the research report

logic:yesterdayiron oreThe stone followed the finished product and weakened. Under the condition of continuous weak profit in the long process, the performance of raw materials varied, and the price of iron ore was suppressed by the double coke. The iron ore was superimposed in weaker than the double. coke because of its own supply and demand relationship.

supply side,The global iron ore shipments have been gradually increasing, among which Vale’s shipments are relatively weak, Australia’s shipments to China have remained stable, the impact of typhoons on reaching East China has been gradually eliminated , and arrivals have rebounded significantly Overall, short-term imported or slightly weaker supply-side support. (September 12 – September 18)

Mysteel Australia and Brazil 19 ports shipped a total of 25.418 million tonnes of iron ore, an increase of 1.677 million tonnes from the previous month. Australian shipment volume was 18.691 million tonnes, an increase of 1.270 million tonnes from the previous month, and Australia’s shipment to China was 15.274 million tonnes, a month-on-month decrease of 23,000 tonnes.

Brazil shipped 6.726 million tonnes, an increase of 407,000 tonnes from the previous month. Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.406 million tonnes, an increase of 820,000 tonnes from the previous month. (September 12 – September 18)

The total number of arrivals from China’s 47 ports was 25.192 million tons, an increase of 1.720 million tons from the previous month; total arrivals from China’s 45 ports were 23.596 million tons, an increase of 1.216 million tons from the previous month; total arrivals from the six northern ports were 14.171 million tonnes, an increase of 3.894 million from the previous month.

On the demand side,The number of production restarts at Changliu Steel Plant is still increasing, which means that the average daily hot metal production continues to rise Short-term demand remains at a moderately high level, but the space on for demand growth is limited. pay attention to the changes in the profits of the steelworks in the later period. (September 16)

Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 82.41%, an increase of 0.43% from the previous week and a year-on-year increase of 3.26%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 88.32%, an increase of 0.76% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 4.73%.

The steel mill’s profit rate was 52.81%, an increase of 0.43% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 35.50%; average daily hot metal output was 2,380,200 tonnes, an increase of 24,700 tonnes month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tonnes.

In terms of inventory,Steel mill profits are low and they are pessimistic about the market outlook Steel mills are buying more according to demand, and the strength of replenishment before the holidays may be lower. In addition, the expected supply recovery and the decline in demand in the medium term remains. unchanged, and supply and demand in the medium term will remain loose. (September 16) According to Mysteel statistics, the inventory of iron ore imported in 45 ports across the country was 13,718.92, a month-on-month increase of 29.94; average daily port dredging volume was 279.78, a decrease of 18.77.

In terms of size,Australian ore decreased 6277.68 130.43, Brazilian ore increased 4638.16 68.17; trade ore decreased 8221.28 91.72, pellets decreased 589.66 4.14, concentration 920.92 4638.16 decreased 2.75, lump ore increased 0.2.3 2.5 cotton ore increased. (Unit: 10,000 tons)

According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports nationwide was 144.2592 million tons, a month-on-month collection of 679,400 tons, and the average daily dredging volume of the 47 ports was 2.8868 million tons , and a month-on-month decrease of 144,700 tonnes.

View:Short-term demand is in a relatively strong phase but the room for progress is limited, and the marginal improvement on the supply side has been superimposed.

Latency concern/market risk:Final demand recovery strength, mainstream mine shipments, and steel mills strength to replenish storage before the holidays.

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