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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered its second month and the war is stalemate. The Mali Wave is like purgatory on earth, and the humanitarian crisis is even more catastrophic. The latest estimates made by the UN Human Rights Office based on the information obtained show that since the Russian invasion, at least 1,119 Ukrainian civilians have been killed in the fighting, another 1,790 have been injured, and at least 3.5 million people have been forced to flee by the Russian bombing. on the road of escape. But fortunately, the door to the negotiations was not completely closed. After several rounds of negotiations without significant progress, the Ukrainian authorities said that the Kyiv and Moscow delegations held the latest round of peace talks in Istanbul, the capital of Turkey, on the 28th. The head of the Russian negotiating delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, also confirmed the news of the upcoming talks with Ukraine. However, according to the Russian side, the negotiation started on the 29th and is expected to end on the 30th.
The latest talks are still under the mediation of Turkey. The foreign ministers of the two countries held their first high-level talks on March 10 in Antalya, a Mediterranean resort in southern Turkey, but there was no breakthrough. The warring sides still hold regular video-conference meetings, but there is little hope of reaching an agreement, with both sides saying the negotiation process is difficult.
NATO member Turkey plays an important role in the mediation between Russia and Ukraine this time. President Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the latest developments in Ukraine in a phone call on Sunday. The two agreed that the next round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine will be held in Istanbul. According to the Turkish Presidential Palace, the two talked about the latest developments in the Ukrainian war and the progress of negotiations. Erdogan told Putin that Russia and Ukraine must reach a ceasefire as soon as possible, practice peace, and improve humanitarian conditions. Erdogan stressed that he will continue to provide all kinds of support to the peace process. Erdogan said on the 24th that he would advise Putin to be a peacemaker and “retire with dignity” from the Ukraine war.
Regarding the content of the negotiations, Erdogan pointed out earlier that the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has 6 clauses, and the two sides seem to have reached an understanding on 4 of them, including Ukraine’s declaration of neutrality and a statement not to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Ukraine’s demilitarization and mutual security assurances, denazification of Ukraine, removal of restrictions on the use of the Russian language in Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba clarified on the 25th that on key issues, Ukraine and Russia “have not reached a consensus”.
Russia wants to split Ukraine in two Copy the situation on the Korean peninsula
The bargaining chip in the hands of the negotiator is the situation on the battlefield. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 25th that Moscow should now make control of the Donbass its “main goal”. The analysis believes that after the Russian army’s operations in Ukraine came to a standstill, the strategy has undergone great changes. Moscow is scaling back its ambitions to focus on supporting the Separatist occupation of Udon. Ukraine’s top military intelligence official said that Russia has shifted its focus to the south and east, and is likely to want to split Ukraine along the north-south Dnieper River, leaving Kyiv without the entire eastern part of Ukraine. The West has judged that the Russian army is currently focusing on consolidating important strongholds and slowing down its all-out offensive. However, Malibo, a key port city in southeastern Ukraine, is likely to fall. Russia’s strategic goal may be to divide Ukraine into two.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Service (GUR), also believes that, in fact, Russia is trying to copy North and South Korea to Ukraine. He also said that Ukraine will soon launch a guerrilla war in Russian-occupied territory. However, some military experts have analyzed that although there are many successful ambush and block Russian military units in various places, the Ukrainian troops have never been able to come up with any effective way to regain lost ground and reverse the war situation.
According to a US think tank, the Kremlin is likely to revise its earlier policy of rapidly subjugating Ukraine, but because it is impossible to recover the lost ground such as demilitarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine, asking Kyiv to give up Crimea, and ensuring that Ukraine will remain neutral forever NATO and other strategic goals, this war may turn into a protracted war.
Some military analysts believe that Russia’s strategic goal has gradually become clear, that is, to fully occupy the eastern Ukrainian area, eliminate the main force of the Ukrainian army to achieve the so-called “demilitarization and de-Nazification”, and establish a buffer zone from the east bank of the Dnieper River to the Russian-Ukrainian border. For Kyiv, it maintains the pressure of the troops under the city, suppresses the anti-Russian arrogance of the Ukrainian country, and the war may evolve into a local long-term. Analysis believes that the essence of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is to establish a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. If the entire territory of Ukraine is occupied, it will still face NATO directly, and the people of Uzbekistan are anti-Russian, and Russia will still avoid falling into the Afghan-style quagmire.
Zelensky: Willing to negotiate a “neutral country” clause
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an exclusive interview broadcast on Sunday that his country was ready to discuss the “neutral state” clause in the Ukrainian-Russian ceasefire agreement, but it must be guaranteed by a third country and the relevant clauses must be approved by a national referendum. During the 90-minute video interview, Zelensky told a number of independent Russian media in Russian: he can understand this point in the negotiating project, they are discussing and studying this issue carefully, he said that he is also ready Discuss issues of security assurances, neutrality status, denuclearization, etc. Zelensky also criticized that the Russian invasion caused huge damage to the Russian-speaking cities in Ukraine, and the losses caused by this war were more serious than when Russia invaded Chechnya.
On the other hand, Russia’s state information technology, communications and mass media monitoring agency (Roskomnadzor) today solemnly warned that domestic media must not report Zelensky’s visit.
Uzbekistan does not expect much from the negotiation
The prospect of new negotiations is also not objective, a senior Ukrainian official; an adviser to the interior minister said on Monday that he did not expect much of any major breakthrough in the talks. Meanwhile, Kyiv said on Monday that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators held a new round of face-to-face talks in Turkey amid fears that Russia could provoke provocations along the route of the humanitarian corridor. Therefore, for the safety of civilians, the humanitarian corridor will not be opened today.
