Russia, Ukraine: How much the war has damaged the Russian economy – BBC News Thai

War often becomes uncontrollable. When things don’t go according to plan Although no one knows that Mr. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia what are you thinking When he ordered the Russian troops to invade Ukraine on Feb. 24, but most analysts believed Putin thought he would win quickly in a matter of days.

U.S. military analysts Benjamin Johnson, Tyson Wetzel and JB Barranco said a month had passed. The conflict turned into a protracted war. Russia is using brutal tactics to crush Ukraine.

They wrote an article for the US research institute Atlantic Council, saying: Russia should have used a protracted war. cut food supplies blocking access to the Black Sea and finally causing famine because Ukrainian farmers cannot harvest their produce.”

But the protracted war will also seriously damage Russia, but the question is how much.

Ed Arnold, European security researcher at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). told the BBC that “Continuing military operations cost immensely. especially when soldiers are far from the main bases.”

“You have to stock up on ammunition and lots of fuel to move your munitions. and food to feed the army.”

There is a lot of evidence pointing to a number of problems with Russia’s supplying efforts in the war with Ukraine. the most obvious Numerous Russian military vehicles were left in the area. because of engine failure

“They weren’t prepared. It was thought that the operation would only take a few days,” Arnold said.

James Stavredis, a retired admiral of the United States Navy. and Dean Emeritus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Tufts University said costs were rising as Russia’s financial resources dried up.

Although Russia has one of the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world (nearly 600 billion US dollars, or about 20 trillion baht), most of these funds are held in western banks. due to economic sanctions

Information from the Center for Economic Recovery, a group of economists and advisers to the Ukrainian government. states that during the 23 days that Russia was at war with Ukraine As a result, Russia has lost at least $19.9 billion (about 660 billion baht) for direct military expenditures. And lost weapons worth 9 billion US dollars (about 300 billion baht).

There is also the cost of firing glide missiles. and loss of growth potential in gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 40 years (calculated on the basis of individual loss of income).

Ukraine claimed on March 19 that more than 14,400 Russian soldiers had died in the war.

and if the total cost is calculated, including The cost of evacuation, treatment for wounded soldiers, ammunition costs, fuel, spare parts, food, etc. must also be included.

The BBC was unable to verify the accuracy of these estimates, while experts consulted by the BBC. They are careful in providing information. Because there are many uncertainties. Although they agreed that the cost of war was very high.

This depends on how effective the economic sanctions of the West will be. Importantly, it also depends on whether European countries will refuse to import gas from Russia or not. This is a major challenge. Because about 40% of the natural gas imported from Europe comes from Russia.

It is also unclear whether Many Russian banks will be barred from using the SWIFT payment system, which allows international money transfers. increase or not That would leave Russia with no option to accept foreign currency payments.

Finally, how long will Russia’s resources be available? Depends on national alliances, especially China.

Experts have always emphasized that China can influence this conflict. But it is unclear what role China should play.

The Chinese government has expressed great concern over what happened. but still call this aggression ” “Military Operations”

And Le Yucheng, Vice Foreign Minister of China, said on March 19 that Western sanctions “It’s getting more and more violent.”

He said the measures were unilateral. and the seizure of foreign assets of Russian civilians. “for no reason”

“History has proven time and time again that sanctions cannot solve problems. Affects the financial and economic system… and make the global economy worse,” Le said.

Renaud Fokart, Senior Lecturer of Lancaster University in the United Kingdom, said China was very important to Russia. Because Russia is losing long-term opportunities.

“If the sanctions continue Russia will lose a number of key trading partners. except for China and Belarus,” said Focart.

Maxim Mironov, a professor at the IE Business School in Spain, said the dependence on China was not an exaggeration.

“China will buy resources from Russia at very low prices. and sell products to Russia at high prices,” he told the BBC.

“China will treat Russia as a Chinese colony. And China will be the sole winner in this war.”

The Russian government insisted that Western sanctions are incapable of isolating a large country like Russia.

Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov He told reporters on March 5, “The world is too big for Europe and the United States. to be isolated in some countries especially a country as large as Russia.”

But the Russian ruble has greatly weakened Most stock markets remain closed. hyperinflation and interest rates rose twice. More than 400 foreign companies have moved out of Russia.

Some analysts estimate the Russian economy may shrink 7-15% this year and are concerned that The Russian government may default on its debts.

“Russia’s industrial sector is coming to a halt,” Mironov said.

Fuchart said there were two factors that would suggest the damage of the war. Will it be too much for Mr Putin? In the next few weeks

The first is the Russian defense and military industry. Will it survive without importing technology from the West?

and the second factor is Is the impact of the sanctions enough to change people’s opinion of Putin?