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The confrontation between Russia and the West, led by the United States, continues without compromise over the Ukraine crisis. US President Joe Biden has warned that if Russia invades Ukraine, it could directly sanction Russian President Vladimir Putin. Against the ‘weaponization of energy’ in which Russia shuts off gas pipelines sent to Europe, the US is seeking ways to procure natural gas from the Middle East and Asia to replace it.
President Biden responded to a reporter’s question on the 25th (local time) if he would personally sanction Putin if he invades Ukraine. “Yes, you will see it.” He raised the level of pressure by citing economic sanctions that were unusually aimed directly at the foreign leader, President Putin.
These remarks come as a warning as the Russian military has begun exercises using live ammunition in the southwestern and western regions adjacent to Ukraine. More than 6,000 troops were mobilized, and a squadron of Su-27 SM and Su-30 SM2 fighters and Su-34 fighter-bombers belonging to the Black Sea Fleet also participated in the training, Interfax reported. Russia also conducted joint exercises with China, its major ally.
Biden reaffirmed that “President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will have devastating consequences,” he said. “If we move all of our troops (which Russia has deployed on the border with Ukraine), it will be the biggest invasion since World War II and it will change the world,” he added. It also hinted at the possibility of moving 85,000 U.S. troops on standby for deployment in Eastern Europe. President Biden said he may be moving some of the 85,000 troops in the near future.
European allies also had a voice. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he was ready to send troops to protect NATO allies if Russia invades Ukraine.
“If Russia invades Ukraine, Ukraine will resist fiercely,” Johnson said. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron during a visit to Berlin on the same day that “everyone agrees that a military attack will have serious consequences”. The United States, in consultation with its allies, is specifying strong economic sanctions that can be implemented immediately if Russia invades Ukraine. These include sanctions that control exports to Russia of all products that incorporate US technology, including semiconductors, expel Russian banks from dollar settlements, and freeze funds of high-ranking Russian officials, including President Putin.
In particular, given the delay in approval of the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline linking Russia and Germany, Russia is preparing for a case in which all gas supplies to Europe are suspended. The US is looking at the amount of natural gas it can secure from North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, including its own.
Russia is not hiding its strategy of using natural gas as a weapon. Russian Senator Nikolai Zurablev told TASS on the same day that “Europe will not receive gas and oil if Russia is separated from the SWIFT payment network.”
Natural gas prices are rising as the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine increases. The price of natural gas traded on the Dutch TTF Exchange recently dropped to 75 euros due to an increase in LNG imports and warm weather forecasts in winter. However, as the crisis in Ukraine escalated, it soared to 93.582 euros as of the 25th.
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