The fact that there were three leaks within a few years “suggests a general decline in Russia’s civilian space program,” McClintock said.
RussianSpaceWeb’s Zak notes that micrometeor impacts in orbit around the Earth are extremely rare. Zak believes that the probability of a meteorite damaging the cooling systems of two spacecraft in such a short time is “extremely close to zero.” Furthermore, the ISS was not damaged.
According to a Russian newspaper, Roscosmos is considering removing the Soyuz currently docked to the ISS earlier than expected and replacing it with another Soyuz. This may indicate that there are technical concerns under the surface.
NASA’s withdrawal from Russia is also having an impact
NASA has trusted Russia to transfer astronauts to the ISS for nine years since the last flight of the Space Shuttle. The Soyuz was the only means of transport into space.
However, since 2020, NASA has been using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft. And Boeing will soon begin offering a manned spacecraft. NASA still outsources some cargo and astronaut transfers to Russia, but that could change soon, McClintock said. “It’s entirely possible that NASA is doing a similar analysis to see if they can continue to resupply the space station and transport astronauts without relying on Russia, and I think that’s a smart move.”
NASA may already be moving in that direction. On March 2, NASA extended cargo transportation contracts with SpaceX, Northrop Grumman and Sierra Space. The move would reduce Russia’s already limited space revenues and add to Russia’s economic woes. Roscosmos has no commercial space program to support or rely on.
Russia has long relied on the Baikonur Cosmodrome in neighboring Kazakhstan to launch manned aircraft. But Kazakhstan charges significant annual fees, and in March seized assets related to Russian spaceports, reportedly over Roscosmos debt.
In an effort to reduce its dependence on the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Russia plans to build a new cosmodrome, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, near the Chinese border in eastern Russia. I’m having trouble.
Skepticism about a new space station
Russia’s civilian space program faces other problems besides launch sites and coolant leaks. This is the ISS.
Over the past quarter century, the space station has played a vital role in connecting the US and Russian space programs. But that role is fading, and plans have emerged to retire the massive structure itself.
NASA is investing in a next-generation commercial space station, with modules expected to reach orbit as early as 2030. Russia has nothing to do with these commercial ventures, or with China’s new space station, Tiangong.
Roscosmos president Yuri Borisov announced in July 2022 that Russia would withdraw from the ISS in 2028, when it will launch its own space station, effectively ending its role. And in February of this year, the state-run TASS news agency revealed that Russia plans to support the ISS until 2028, but that period would depend on the deployment of “new Russian orbital stations.”
