Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine war has also shaken the international arms trade. Russian sales are collapsing, with one superpower benefiting the most.
While Russia is still a major nuclear power, conventionally Putin’s war is currently demilitarizing the country at a rapid pace – and the Kremlin boss still does not seem ready to give up his war goals. But even before this conflict, an important pillar of international influence for the Kremlin appeared to be increasingly in ruins: Russian arms exports have been collapsing for several years, but Putin’s invasion is now threatening a knockout blow for a key Russian industry. The consequences are fatal.
Russia’s armaments industry currently has to produce primarily for its own army in the Ukraine war. As a result, Moscow cannot keep up with its deliveries to other countries – that costs Putin trust, money and Russian influence is declining worldwide.
Russian arms boom is over
Similar to the Soviet Union before it, Russia has the problem that it hardly has any soft power. This means that the Kremlin can hardly exert power on other states with cultural attractiveness, with ideology, with development aid or with an attractive political system without using violence. That is why Putin intimidates his neighboring states militarily or uses dependencies by selling cheap raw materials or armaments to other states.
But according to the Swedish peace research institute SIPRI, Putin’s arms industry has been on the road to crisis for over a decade. In 2011, Russia’s arms exports peaked, but by 2019, business had plummeted 20 percent. In 2011, Russia was within striking distance of the USA and, according to SIPRI, supplied 35 countries. Eleven years later, in 2022, there are only twelve countries and sales are down 70 percent from the 2011 peak.
After taking power, Putin began to modernize the Russian army technically. After that, the Kremlin advertised internationally with powerful weapon systems such as the S-300 or S-400 air defense systems, which are cheaper compared to the systems from the West. But the Russian arms boom seems over.
Russia arms despotic and revisionist leaders like Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and Bashar al-Assad in Syria and helped them consolidate their power. From 2010 to 2013 in particular, Moscow supported the Syrian government in the civil war with armaments. But in the middle of the last decade headwinds came up and a few years later Putin’s key industry was in the storm.
What are the reasons for the crisis?
- Venezuela’s economy collapsed in 2014, as well Syria’s arms purchases.
- After Annexation of Crimea by Russia The United States and other Western countries began to pressure third countries not to buy Russian military equipment.
- Before Crimea was occupied, EU countries such as Cyprus and Slovenia were also among the customers of Russian armaments companies. The western sanctions changed that suddenly.
- Through China’s Economic Rise Beijing was able to break its armament policy dependency on Russia and is developing more and more of its own weapon systems.
- Also IIndia has its own production under Prime Minister Narendra Modi increased and imports reduced.
- After the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, the West sanctions against Russia exacerbated and now the Russian defense industry lacks modern technology such as semiconductors.
- Ultimately, Russia needs its Armament production primarily for your own army and can only sell a few.
“Demand will remain low”
The slump in Russian arms exports is primarily an expression of the increasing international isolation in which Russia has found itself since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The collapse of the Russian arms business is an indicator of how expensive Putin’s imperialism is for Russia as well. It not only costs tens of thousands of lives, but also massively influence Moscow.
In principle, declining arms exports are conducive to peace. But the gap left by Russia in the markets is being filled by other states. Above all, the USA and France will benefit.
