US professor contributes to FP… Pursuing independence, such as Chechnya, when instability deepens due to structural vulnerability
As Russia, which invaded Ukraine, fought in the war, a claim that it was necessary to prepare for the fall of Russia came out on the 8th (local time) in the United States.
Alexander Motil, professor of political science at Rutgers University in the United States, argued this in an article entitled ‘Now is the right time to prepare for the fall of Russia’ in Foreign Policy (FP).
When listing examples such as the defeat of Napoleon and the fall of the French Empire, he recalled, “There are many examples in history where states collapsed after events such as wars, revolutions and economic crises.”
“There are different scenarios for what could happen in Russia after it becomes increasingly clear that Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is emerging,” he said.
“We don’t know who will win, but the power struggle will undermine the Russian system,” he said.
“It is also possible that the non-Russian political units that are part of the Russian Federation will also seek more autonomy,” he said.
“If Russia survives this internal turmoil, it is very likely to become a subordinate state to China,” he said. “If Russia does not survive, the map of Eurasia will be very different.”
Regarding the process of the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Professor Motil said, “In 1985, when Mikhail Gorbachev became secretary of the Communist Party, very few Russians wanted or imagined the dissolution of the former Soviet Union. ” “As a result, the Soviet system collapsed while trying to revive it.”
“What inadvertently killed the Soviet Union was Gorbachev’s key political and economic policy, perestroika,” he said.
“If Russia is following this path of collapse, it has nothing to do with the will of the Russian elite or Western policy,” he said, “as there are more structural forces at work.”
Regarding the structural weaknesses of the Russian system, he said, “including the military and economic defeat in Ukraine, as well as the inefficiency and fragility of Putin’s hyper-centralized political system.”
“Few people today want Russia to break up, but it is not difficult to imagine a scenario where increasing political, economic and social instability will eventually force the units that make up Russia to seek stability through independence.”
“Under these circumstances, the collapse of the Russian regime could be triggered by a trigger,” he said. “The defeat in Ukraine could be the spark that ignites the old wood.
“The collapse of Russia could lead to several civil wars,” said Marlene Laruel, a political scientist at George Washington University. He also quoted former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger as saying, “As the situation develops, Russian groups may compete violently with each other.”
In particular, former Secretary Kissinger warned about the danger of nuclear weapons in Russia.
“Laluel and Kissinger’s prophecy is the worst case scenario,” he said. “If you look at the history of empires, peaceful power transfers and violent fights are possible,” he said, emphasizing the need to prepare for this.
“Countries along Russia’s borders from the Baltic Sea to Central Asia will be key to preventing instability (proliferation) within Russia and helping newly independent states of the Russian Federation behave in a stable and moderate manner,” he said.
“In this regard, the West’s continued support for Ukraine and others will be the best device to minimize the repercussions of Putin’s empire if it ends,” he said.