The ‘debt investment’ to Samsung Electronics, whose stock price plummeted, has increased.
According to financial information company Infomax on the 22nd, Samsung Electronics’ credit loan balance as of the 18th (as of the trading day) was 13.51 million shares (941.8 billion won). This is an increase of about 32% from 12.44 million shares (723.9 billion won) on the 30th of last month.
Looking at the trading trend, the credit balance actually increased while Samsung Electronics stock price fell or closed flat on the 5th to 13th. In particular, the balance on the 13th, when the stock price plunged 3.38%, increased by about 1.95 million shares (17%) from the previous day.
On the other hand, on days when stock prices rose, the credit balance generally decreased.
The credit balance decreased for three consecutive days on the 2nd to 4th days when the stock price recovered to ‘80,000 electronics’. The balance also decreased on the 17th, when it rose to 0.94% during the day and seemed to rebound.
It is analyzed that this has nothing to do with individual trading methods.
After the COVID-19 outbreak last year, when the index fell, individuals tended to have a buying advantage, and when the index rose, individuals tended to have a selling advantage.
Kim Young-hwan, head of investment strategy at NH Investment & Securities, said, “The reason the stock price is going down now is that foreigners sell stocks, and when foreigners sell stocks, it is the individual who buys them. said.
As individuals engage in long-term investments as well as arbitrage investments following a short-term rebound in stock prices, the credit balance moves accordingly.
According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, credit loan balances increased day after day while the KOSPI fell for six consecutive trading days from the 9th to the 17th, exceeding 25 trillion won for the first time on the 13th.
Considering that the credit balance usually increases when the stock price is expected to rise, the perception that the current share price decline is excessive also seems to have played a role.
◇ Credit interest burden likely to increase due to base rate hike… Analysis of “Limiting the impact on ‘debt investment'”
It is noteworthy what effect the Bank of Korea will have on ‘debt investment’ if it raises the base rate.
The securities industry believes that the interest rate hike will affect the direction of the interest rate on credit loans to some extent as the overall cost increases when the base rate rises. This is a point where an individual’s interest burden may increase.
However, some analysts say that the base rate hike will not be able to change the ‘debt investment’ trend itself.
Team leader Kim Young-hwan said, “The reason interest rates affect investment (funding costs increase) is when the expected return is lowered, or when the interest rate is raised to catch an overheated economy, and the outlook for asset prices is lowered, but now it is neither.” “Since the credit of securities companies is usually at high interest rates, the impact (of the base rate hike) is less,” he said.
Kim Gwang-hyeon, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, said, “It cannot be said that there is no effect, but since the interest rate is rising from a very low level, even if the rate rises (the absolute level itself), it is not high. “I would like to take a conservative approach to whether one interest rate hike will have a significant impact on the stock market or credit balance,” he said.
It is speculated that the sharp decline in stock prices will have a direct impact rather than the base rate hike itself. When confidence in the uptrend is shaken, individuals may be hesitant to make aggressive purchases such as ‘debt investment’.
In addition, if the stock price falls and the collateral maintenance ratio of credit transactions falls below the standard, counter-trading occurs, which is the part where the amount of credit balance can act as a selling pressure.
Moon Jong-jin, a researcher at Kyobo Securities, said, “(Individuals) withdraw a lot of funds when the index falls to a certain extent (below). Personally, I see (KOSPI) at 2,980 points, but that level was when individuals bought a lot last January.”
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