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#Thanhoon – Maybank Securities evaluates the stock of BDMS or Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Services Limited as a hold recommendation, increasing TP to 31 baht.
As for the analysis, the research department maintains a “Hold” recommendation and raises the target price by 7% to 31 baht. To reflect the revenue growth of 6.8% in the year 2023 as the company has set. Our revenue forecast was revised 1.8-2.7% and 0- 0.3ppt in terms of EBITDA margin.
For 2013 and 2024, this resulted in an increase in core profit of 4.8-5.5% Core profit is expected to grow by only 3.9% in 2023 (down from 58.8% in 2022) due to the high base, including the share of cattle revenue 11% also The research department prefers CHG (CHG price 3.64 baht, target price 4.40 baht) as it is a leader in the fast-growing Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), which is Thailand’s industrial hub .
Expect revenue to grow 6-8% annually over the next three years**
BDMS has revealed financial targets for the next 3 years, which the research department has calculated in the department’s forecast, namely 1) compound annual growth in revenue of 6-8% CAGR during 2023-2025 (7.6% expected CAGR) and 2) EBITDA Margin 23-24% (expected 23.6%). Core profit growth is expected to slow to 7.6% CAGR compared to 22.8% in 2022. As a result, core profit growth may slow to 3.9% in 2023 from 58.8% in 2022 from a high base in 22. of revenue related to COVID
Focus more on Social Security patients**
BDMS currently has 8 social security hospitals and plans to add another one in Sriracha this year. Although Social Security hospitals still account for a small percentage of the growth drivers (9 out of 62 in 2016), it is believed that BDMS will be able to compete for share in this lucrative market.
Research Department would recommend HOLD, increase TP to Bt31**
