HoonSmart.com>> Maybank Securities Expect the index in 1Q12 to swing upward, with a frame of 1600-1,700 points, hoping for a recovery in the tourism sector. The baht has strengthened hoping for capital inflows Beware of risk factors LTF sales force – Chinese economy slows – tax collection, trading stocks, outstanding stocks ASK-GULF-SCC-SPRC- WICE Merchant Asset Management Co., Ltd. raises stocks for the first 3 months, the best of the year. Index Breaking through 1,680 points, Yuanta Securities gave resistance at 1,700 points, supported by consumption. Like KBANK-SCB-AH-NYT-CPALL.
Mr. Wichit Arayapisit, Director of Securities Research Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) revealed that the stock market outlook in the first quarter of 2022 is expected that the index will swing up. The frame moves at 1600-1,700 points, with positive factors driven by recovering domestic consumption. and government economic stimulus measures In addition, exports continued to expand.
Outlook for 2022 estimated earnings per share of SET at 94.2 baht per share, an increase of 13% compared to 2021, based on a P/E Ratio of 18.6 times, compared to the SET’s 5-year average P/E of +0.5. Standard deviation (SD) will achieve the year-end 2022 index target of 1,750 points.
while more thorough vaccination It will help build higher investment confidence. The tourism sector is expected to gradually recover and there will be upside risks if more Chinese tourists visit Thailand. This will result in the current account balance returning to a surplus. As a result, the baht appreciated. and make capital flows in
As for risk factors to be aware of, they are: 1. Suggest to increase caution at the beginning of the year from LTF money that matures for 7 calendar years (purchased in 2016). million baht has a chance to be redeemed (Redemption) is a short-term pressure on investment. But view it as an opportunity to gradually accumulate good fundamental stocks when the market declines.
2. China’s economy slows down Expected growth of +5.2% compared to 2021 at +8%, pressure from both the COVID-19 issue, more stringent government measures Combined with the risk of large Chinese real estate companies defaulting on their debts, which could spread to other companies But the government is trying to inject liquidity into the system through reducing RRR, so the overall impact may still be at a controllable level. But must watch closely
3. Stock taxation The tax measure creates additional pressure. At present, the state is studying 2 approaches which are 1) Financial Transaction Tax and 2) Capital gain Tax. Article 1) because it is easier to use information for collecting tax than tax
“Profit from selling shares Will be quite difficult to cost. If actually used, it is expected to be a negative psychology for investment as it increases the investor’s cost. and will likely result in a slowdown in market trading volume,” said Mr. Wichit.
investment strategy Recommend to gradually accumulate stocks with good earnings growth prospects. According to the economic recovery both at home and abroad Even in an interest rate uptrend cycle including high dividend stocks which is the target of institutional investors at the beginning of the year There are outstanding stocks for the first quarter: ASK with a target price of 55 baht, GULF with a target price of 48 baht, SCC with a target price of 520 baht, SPRC with a target price of 11.20 baht and WICE with a target price of 22.10 baht.
Mr. Prakit Sirivadhanaket, Managing Director Merchant Partners Asset Management looks at the Thai stock market during the first quarter, and is expected to be the best. This was due to the expectation of a continual recovery from Q4/21, both listed companies’ operating results. and expectations of GDP recovery despite the COVID-19 outbreak Omicron species but not limited to travel including effective control of Thailand Reflecting from Thailand is the most stable in Asia. This makes the opportunity to be a source of money for foreign investors. And there is quite a chance to see Fund Flow coming in during the first quarter.
However, the investment Assess the first resistance that the market is expected to reach around 1,680 points and the key resistance is 1,750-1780 points. In the first 3 months, stocks with high dividends are recommended. Every year, we can see the movement of stocks with good dividend yields. We recommend TISCO, LH, ADVANC and INTUCH, as well as some stocks benefiting from rising interest rates. and benefit from the recovery of domestic consumption and consumption With a better economic outlook, we recommend BAM, CRC and HMPRO. Safe stocks. Port diversification recommends BGRIM and GPSC.
For the 2nd quarter of 2022, the direction will gradually decrease from good in the first quarter. Because the world will enter the era of rising interest rates both fast and strong. The market will start to accept news 2-3 months before the interest rate hike or will start to see negative news in the second quarter, coupled with the volatility of political stability after the election. may result in market volatility.
In addition, various risks still exist, such as new strains of COVID-19. regional tensions inclement weather If inflation remains high may result in the adoption of new measures Including the policy from the US Federal Reserve that is more tight or reducing the size of the balance sheet.
Mr. Nattapon Kamthakrue, Director of Securities Analysis Department Yuanta Securities (Thailand) said that the stock market in the first quarter has a chance to rise due to recovering consumption factors. Resistance is at 1700 points, support is at 1,550-1580 points. LTF redemption is not seen as having a significant impact on the market. It is expected to be around 4,000-5,000 million baht, which normally sells around 1,000 million baht per day.
“About the increase in the sales tax of shares Yuanta Securities had not yet asked for comment. But it may result in a decrease in trading volume. after the cost of sales increased from the government’s tax collection,” said Mr. Nattapon.
Featured stocks for 1Q22 Recommend Banking stocks benefiting from rising interest rates Recommend KBANK and SCB, electric vehicle stocks AH and NYT, stocks benefiting from domestic consumption recover, recommend CPALL