Should I buy a house right now? Tenants who sleep at night

Anxiety about the rental market in the second half of this year is growing. This is because jeonse items related to the enforcement of the lease law, such as the right to request a contract renewal, which will be two years from August, and the monthly rent limit system, are coming out on the market. When an item that has exhausted the right to apply for contract renewal, which has been limited to a 5% increase in the rate, comes to market, existing tenants have to set up a deposit of tens of thousands of won or hundreds of millions of won at once. In the midst of dark clouds in the rental market, we looked into how to deal with the ‘Jeonse Disruption’ for end-users.

Graphics = Reporter Huh Rami

Aim for areas with more than 1000 households

Even within Seoul, there is a plan to move the residence to an area with many residential complexes. Jeonse is sensitive to supply and demand, so if there is an apartment in a large-scale apartment complex, the Jeonse price tends to be lowered one after another.

According to the Korea Real Estate Agency on the 29th, in the fourth week of this month (as of the 23rd), the Jeonse price for apartments in Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul fell 0.03% from the previous week. Eunpyeong-gu showed a high rate of increase of 0.06% until the end of last year, but it has been on a downward trend for 19 consecutive weeks after switching to a flat rate in January.

It is analyzed that the background of the weak Jeonse price in Eunpyeong-gu is the large influence of ‘DMC Central Xi’ (1388 households) in Jeungsan-dong, which has moved in since March. Jeonse deposits for this apartment, with an exclusive area of ​​84 square meters, were in the range of 700 million to 800 million won at the beginning of this year, but now they have fallen to the low range of 650 million to 700 million won.

Jeonse prices in neighboring Eungam-dong and Susaek-dong are also falling in series. For the 44 m² dedicated to ‘Nok translation e-Pyunhansang Castle’ in Eungam-dong, the contract was signed at 550 million won, the highest price ever, in December last year, but on the 21st, it was signed for 399 million won. Currently, there are 450 million to 500 million won of jeonse items in the market. ‘DMC SK View’ in Susaek-dong also fell by more than 100 million won from the end of last year. The exclusive 84m2 contract was signed for 680 million won last month, which was traded at a high of 850 million won in October last year.

According to Real Estate Info, a real estate market analysis company, there are a total of 8,296 apartments in Seoul that are scheduled to move in in the second half of this year. Large-scale sites with more than 1,000 households include ‘Raemian Ellinity’ (1048 households) in Yongdu-dong, Dongdaemun-gu, which will be moving in from August, and ‘Gocheok I-Park’ (2205 households) in Gocheok-dong, Guro-gu, which will receive its owner in October. In July, ‘The Sharp Park Prestige’ (799 households) in Singil-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu, and ‘DMC Kumho Richensia’ (450 households) in Namgajwa-dong, Seodaemun-gu are waiting.

Gangnam area tenants should aim for the first half of next year. In February of next year, ‘Gaepo President Xi’ (3375 households), which reconstructed the 4th Gaepo Jugong Complex in Gangnam-gu, will move in. Heukseok River Park Xi (1772 households) in Heukseok-dong, Dongjak-gu, located in the Gangnam area, will also move in from February.

“Actual buyers switch to trading”

Experts agree that it is better to switch to sale even now if you are a homeless end user. In Gangnam and Seocho-gu, where the charter difficulties are severe, one way is to aim for apartment replacement products such as residential officetels. As for the residential officetels supplied to the Gangnam area this year, ‘Hillstate Samsung’, which Hyundai E&C will supply to Samseong-dong next month, is available. It will be built on the scale of 165 rooms with 7 stories below the ground and 17 above, and dedicated 50 to 84 m².

Hyundai Engineering will sell the ‘Insignia Banpo’ in Bangbae-dong, Seocho-gu next month. It consists of 5 basement floors and 20 above-ground floors, two buildings, 148 rooms of 59 to 144 m2 exclusively for officetels, and neighborhood living facilities. You can walk to Gubanpo Station (Seoul Subway Line 9).

In Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, ‘Polstein Nonhyeon’ will be supplied this month. 5 stories below the ground and 19 above, 99 rooms of 37 to 142 m² for officetels, and neighborhood living facilities, etc. will be built. It is easy to use Teheran-ro, Dosan-daero, Hakdong-ro, and Dogok-ro through Eonju-ro, which runs through Gangnam from north to south.

‘Eluk Seocho’, implemented by Studio D Company and constructed by Lotte E&C, is being sold in Seocho-dong, Seocho-gu. It has 4 basement floors and 23 above ground, 2 buildings, and 330 rooms of 19 to 41 m² for exclusive use.

As the sale price rises due to the improvement of the pre-sale price cap system and the sharp rise in raw material prices, there are voices recommending buying and selling rather than subscribing. Yoon Su-min, a real estate expert at Nonghyup Bank, said, “It is difficult not only to make an offer for market profit due to the rise in the sale price, but it is also difficult to predict when the supply will be made due to the surge in construction costs. It’s a way to avoid the charter crisis,” he said.

Reporter Eunji Shim summit@hankyung.com

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