Should the Taiwan stock market soar in two days, should I run for my life first?Three major signals to pay attention to | Anue Juheng – Expert Opinion

In just 2 trading days, Taiwan stocks soared by more than 640 points, and foreign capital also bought more than 48.9 billion yuan at the same time. TSMC (2330-TW) closed at the highest point of the day for 2 consecutive days, and the closing price of 547 yuan on 5/30 was also close to The high point in the past month, has Taiwan stocks gone too much without thinking? Zhang Yicheng, an analyst who used to work in the foreign trading room, said that he believes that there are actually the following points for reference:

First, the continuation of foreign net long orders in Taiwan index futures, because foreign net long orders doubled to 9,212 on Friday (27th), which also contributed to Friday and Monday (30th). ) of Taiwan stocks, foreign capital bought a total of 47.9 billion Taiwan stocks in two days, so when foreign capital is serious and more, its influence is usually not to be underestimated. This year, foreign capital sold Taiwan stocks by 3,000 points. Strength is absolutely the key, so the net long order of foreign futures dropped to 6,992 after the market today. If the net long order of more than 5,000 orders can continue to be maintained, Taiwan stocks may not be an escape wave.

Second, the Taiwan dollar continued to rise and the US dollar index fell, and this signal has a lagging effect, because when the Taiwan stock market fell below 16,000 points last week, the Taiwan dollar has actually risen for several days, and the US dollar index has also fallen to 102. Nearby, but the Taiwan stock market was still in shock testing at that time, and the surge in the past two days is obviously a lagging effect of the strength of the Taiwan dollar, so on the other hand, the strength of the Taiwan dollar has the meaning of a leading indicator. , there is still room to look forward to the recovery of Taiwan stocks. On the contrary, if the Taiwan dollar reverses to a sharp depreciation, it is necessary to be careful that foreign capital will switch from buying to selling.

Third, the general economic news in June and the mood changes of the market panic, because it is now expected that the Central Bank of Taiwan, the US Fed, etc. will continue to tighten monetary policy in June, including the Fed will begin to reduce the balance sheet (shrinking balance sheet) As long as the market sentiment is not further turned into panic, the stock market has the opportunity to adapt, and then slowly rise according to the past cycle of interest rate hikes, because in 2004, the The stock market rose with the rate hike cycle of 2015, so it is worth following up. For more foreign legal person information and instant messages, you can lock the LINE fan group of Zhang Yicheng analyst.

[Analyst Zhang Yicheng – foreign capital super-money line]

Experience: Master of Finance from Peking University, worked in the foreign-funded Citi Taipei trading room, and the former foreign-funded Barclays Hong Kong trading room

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