Sideway SCM Special Report (2 Jun 20)

last wednesday The index moved mostly in negative territory, around -4 to -5 points. The index fell after continuing its gains in the past. The key factor is also the Fed’s interest rate hike.

QT performance and continued rising oil prices pressure on the inflation situation As a result, the SET Index closed at 1,660.01 points, -3.40 points -0.20%, trading value 70,483 million baht. Foreign -1,465.06 million baht. TFEX +13,948 contracts Fixed income -2,207.90 million baht.

positive factor

+ WTI crude futures were up 59 cents +0.5% to close at $115.26 a barrel. Responded to news that the European Union (EU) voted to suspend oil imports from Russia. In addition, the market was also supported by the end of China’s Shanghai lockdown measures. This will be a factor supporting oil demand.
The U.S. manufacturing index rose to 56.1 in May, contrary to analysts’ forecasts for a fall to 54.5 from 55.4 in April, helped by weak demand. Strong, which resulted in a rebound in new orders.
+ Japan announced that it will take incoming travelers more than 20,000 a day, and will allow most travelers not to have COVID-19 testing. and do not have to detain
+ Election Commission advises the government to speed up the announcement of COVID-19 become endemic as soon as possible build public confidence Tourism receives the benefit of a continuous recovery. Support the economy for the rest of this year to grow in line with the 2.5-4% target. Keep an eye on the war-oil-inflation.
+/- The Prof. reports the situation of the epidemic of the Covid-19 virus. in the country today Found 2,560 new cases, 4,387 ATK, 34 deaths, 5,605 recoveries.

negative factors

The Dow ended up down 176.89 -0.54%, falling for a second day and closing below 33,000 as investors worried the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes would hurt the US economy. into recession

– Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) US final manufacturing It dropped to 57.0 in May, the lowest in four months and below the initial reading of 57.5 from 59.2 in April.
– WHO aims to control the spread of monkeypox (Monkeypox) by stopping the transmission to humans as much as possible. He warned that there is a high probability that the epidemic will increase in Europe. and other areas this summer
– The United States released the results of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Rate (JOLTS) survey found that the number of job openings. The measure of demand in the labor market fell 455,000 to 11.4 million in April. in line with analysts’ forecasts
– U.S. construction spending rose 0.2% in April month-over-month. That was lower than analysts had expected a 0.5% gain after a 0.3% gain in March.
– The Bank of Thailand (BOT) released a trader confidence index, showing that the confidence of retail operators, both the current state and the next three months, declined due to the rising cost of living that aggravated the purchasing power of consumers. still weak and the government’s consumption stimulus measures gradually expired. which pressures the recovery of the retail business

market trend today

Expect the index today to fluctuate with intraday volatility. by concern that the Fed Accelerating interest rate hikes will result in the US economy still entering a recession. While the high price of crude WTI helped support energy stocks. Expect the index today to move in the range of 1,650-1670 points.

investment strategy

• Country opening June 1 : AOT AAV BA BEM ERW CENTEL MINT AWC ASAP

• FTSE announced stocks in/out, effective June 17 FTSE All World Index : In – Out – , Micro Cap Index In BRI CIVIL HENG KTBSTMR PEACE SVT TKC TFM WFX Out –

• Stocks expanding in April: TWPC BRR KSL TU ASIAN KCE PDJ INOX


special report stock

SCM – “Positive View”

Reported 1Q22 profit of 36.3 million baht +1.2%YoY -51%QoQ from the high season in 4Q21 %GP improved despite a -5%YoY drop in revenue, but gross margin improved considerably from 72.1%. In 1Q21 it was 77.8% as the proportion of high-margin products in the agricultural product segment increased. and a net profit margin of 12.9%, improving from 1Q21 at 12.2%. Costs were reduced from the adjustment of marketing activities to an online format that was economical and accessible to consumers well.

Executives set a sales growth target of 20% this year with key driver from 1. Increase the monthly membership base of 5,000 people, which is expected to have 200,000 members by the end of the year 2. Increase %active in purchasing products from 13% to 15% by aiming at food supplements and products to increase agricultural productivity, with an aim to grow from this group of products 50%. 3. Manufacturing OEM health food supplements. 4. Leasing business. It is expected that the service will begin in 3Q65, expanding from the subscriber base.

Opinion: Positive outlook on the year’s 65 earnings as SCM’s main revenue is health food products with a 59% share of the revenue structure from the COVID-19 situation. Make people turn to care more about their health. and opportunities to grow in new businesses The share price is trading at a P/E of 19.5x, below the group average of 35x.

stocks have news

(+) TRUE (Bloomberg consensus 5.70 baht) Agree to sell 300 million DIF big lots, low price 13.30 baht, get 3,990 million baht to increase liquidity Open financial statements, current debt is higher than current assets up to 6.4 billion baht, with a large debt to be paid this year, 59 billion baht (source to catch up with the shares)

(+) SAMART (Bloomberg consensus – baht) SAMART is confident that all businesses will recover. pushing total revenue this year to reach 14 billion baht, highlighting SAMTEL, gradually delivering work continuously While aiming to grab the auction this year, 11 billion baht, adding to the backlog from the current 8 billion baht, while SDC expects 2023 to turn positive, aiming to set up an infrastructure fund. Support investment in DTRS, aiming to submit filing to push SAV into the market and study the issuance of NFT (Source, catch up)

(+) VCOM (Bloomberg consensus 7.50 baht) Overseas IT demand is tight. Pointing out that Cambodia’s performance in the first half of the year has a chance to grow by leaps and bounds Pin this year’s wealth of 400-500 million baht. Stock up on work waiting to be delivered. Keep an eye on the budget for the second half of the year. Expect the state-private sector to invest heavily Looking at the picture of the revenue, go through service, up margin, Phongto (Source, catch up)

(+) AH (Bloomberg consensus 28.00 baht) Showing a magnificent performance in the 2nd quarter, influx of orders – with a new model to support Confident that this year will grow strong by 30%, receiving an expanding customer portfolio. Government Gazette section EV tax reduction measures with subsidies Help push the EV work in again (Source: Tan stock)