Inflationary pressure may accelerate the pace of Fed rate hikes. Standard Chartered Bank said that the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 6 yards in the second half of the year. It is recommended that the investment strategy should be moderately “reduce stocks and increase debt”. In the short-term, we can observe the message that Quan Wang TSMC (2330-TW) will release, and observe whether the downward speed of the economy is accelerating.
Liu Jiahao, head of the Investment Strategy Department of the Wealth Management Office of Standard Chartered Bank, said that since June, Taiwan stocks have fallen along with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index of the US stock market, and the weighted stock TSMC has fallen significantly. Watch to see if tech stocks enter a correction phase in Q3.
Liu Jiahao said that TSMC’s customers, including AMD and NVIDIA, have begun to slow down the speed of supplying goods, which may lead to a decline in the utilization rate. In addition, the market still has doubts about order drawing, so TSMC will say next week. The customer order information released by the clubhouse can determine whether this wave of stock market decline is the beginning of a market correction or an overreaction in advance.
Liu Jiahao believes that with the deepening of the market’s doubts about economic fundamentals, coupled with the turning of technical aspects and the slowdown in terminal demand, the downward pressure on the broader market has increased. Therefore, even a short-term rebound may be a technical rebound. Investors are advised to adjust cautiously to should.
In the general manager section, Standard Chartered Bank believes that the rate of inflation in the second half of the year should not be too fast. It is judged that the Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in the third quarter, and it is expected to raise interest rates by 6 yards in the second half of the year. Under the pressure of inflation and the war, it is recommended to reduce the weight of stocks and increase the holdings of bonds.
However, Standard Chartered Bank also believes that after the stock market has undergone a major correction in the first half of the year, the attractiveness of the financial market will gradually become apparent. There is no need to be too pessimistic about the investment layout, as long as the investment strategy of “seeking stability while taking risks and taking a step by step”, multi-asset income investment strategy There is still a lot to do, with value stocks and high-rated bonds expected to regain favor.