Still volatile stock HARN Special Report (19 December 2022)

From the issue of concern that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is moving forward aggressively raising interest rates to prevent inflation. It will lead to the US economy going into recession. As a result, the SET Index closed at 1,619.01 points, -1.27 points, -0.08%, trading value 66,299.75 million baht, foreigners +2,310.88 million baht, TFEX +16,361 fixed income contracts -1,053.36 million baht.

a positive factor

Sales of high-end Chinese-made passenger cars have grown rapidly in the country over the past 11 months, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Even in the face of disruptions from COVID-19 The above cars sold more than 3.51 million units in China, an increase of 12.7% YoY.
+ European Union (EU) negotiators reach an agreement on overhauling the carbon market This is the EU’s main policy instrument in the fight against global warming.
+ The Trade Minister said at the Hmong Economic Leaders 2022 event that Thailand’s exports in the year 2022 are expected to be worth about 9 trillion baht, with the growth rate likely to increase by 7%, which is an increase from the previous year . 64 with a total value of 8.5 trillion baht, while in 2023 the export value is expected to be around 9.25 trillion baht.

a negative factor

– Dow Jones closed 281.76 points or -0.85% over the last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7% and also lost for the second consecutive week. Because investors are increasingly worried about that Fed’s move to raise interest rates to control inflation puts the US economy into recession
– WTI crude futures were down $1.82, or 2.4%, at $74.29 a barrel. After major central banks indicated that they will continue to raise interest rates next year. This raises concerns that the global economy will go into recession, which could reduce demand for oil. However, this week, WTI crude futures rose 4.6%.

The US PMI for manufacturing and preliminary services fell to 44.6 in December, a four-month low from 46.4 in November, with the PMI still lower. A level of 50 indicates that the US business sector is in contraction . and contracted for the 6th consecutive month
The US government has blacklisted a total of 36 Chinese technology companies, escalating the trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
– The city of Shanghai which is the financial center of China Announce that most schools will close today. because of concerns that Cancellation of strict measures to control the spread of COVID-19 lead to a rapid increase in the number of infected people

today’s market trends

Thailand’s stock market index is expected to fluctuate during the day. Investors are also concerned that the US economy has entered a recession. along with the drop in crude oil prices also putting pressure on energy stocks The index is expected to move within a range of 1,610-1,625 points.

investment strategy

• FTSE SET Large Cap : Shares in AWC Shares JTS FTSE SET Mid Cap : Shares in JTS RAM TLI Shares AWC BTSGIF TFFIF Effective 19 Dec. ’22
• Win a chance to shop well, have a night of 2023 : BJC CPALL MAKRO CRC COM7 SPVI CPW JMART HMPRO ZEN M AU
• Number of people infected with COVID-19 Domestic acceleration : BCH CHG EKH THG WPH
• Good growth in October exports: TÎM HANA KCE SMT

stock special report

AT – “Buy”, a reasonable price in 2023, equal to 2.43 baht

3Q22 net profit was reported at 28.4 million baht, growth of 193.8% YoY and 24.0% QoQ: The company had sales and service income of 328.8 million baht, a high growth of 39.8% YoY. from a low base in the same period last year and 9.4% QoQ from gradual transfers. from the backlog of orders from 2011 and the situation of the COVID-19 epidemic The trend continues to improve with %GPM at 29.4%, close to YoY, QoQ of 29.3% in 3Q21 and 29.7% in 2Q22, resulting in the company’s 3Q22 net profit of 28.4 million baht, representing a net profit of 8.6%, increasing YoY, QoQ by 4.0% in 3Q21 and 7.6% in 2Q22.

• Maintain net profit forecasts for 2022 and 2023 at 85 million baht and 89 million baht, representing growth of 17%YoY and 5%YoY, respectively. and net profit in 2022 at 1,180 million baht and 85 million baht, growing 15% and 17% from 2021, with revenue and profit during 9M22 accounting for 78% and 80% of the projected year 2022, as for revenue in the 4Q22 period, the company expects In the area of ​​327-345 million baht, small QoQ growth, but 23-30% YoY growth from the company’s continued recovery. As a result, there is a slight upside in our projection for 2022. By the end of September 2022, there is a backlog of 467 million baht.

• “BUY” is recommended with a 2023 fair price of Bt2.43: The research department has a positive long-term view on the fundamentals of a variety of products required for use in buildings and factories. We estimate earnings per share in 2023 to be Bt0.152 and use a new Target P/E of 16x (based on the company’s 5-year PER of +0.50SD), down from the previous 18x due to the trend expected growth. slowing profit (expected profit in 2023 to increase by 5%), resulting in a reasonable price in 2023 equal to 2.43 baht

news stock

(+) PSB (Bloomberg Consensus 11.50 baht) M&A deals almost closed, negotiations have progressed 80-90%, expected to end in Q1/2023, spending about 600 million baht, aiming to expand investment in CLMV countries , which is expected to take place in about 3-4 years sees the future as a market with high growth potential For the next year, sales are expected to grow by 7-10% in line with economic recovery and an improved COVID-19 situation, boosting purchasing power. Export market content continues to grow (source Thun Hoon)

(+) STRENGTH (Bloomberg Consensus – baht) major restructuring Proceed with a new fully electric motorcycle business through “Yihao Motors” holding a 40% stake, along with a joint venture with SERSOL in Thailand and Malaysia. Set a goal of selling 70,000 units within 3 years, pushing the revenue share to 60%, ready to invest in external service business Pump income to grow 2 times a year (source Na Hoon)

(+) ORI (Bloomberg Consensus 13.55 baht) Enter the entertainment business for the first time. The launch of record label “Origin Music” joins the trend of T-Pop, proceeding to build the brand into Forever Young, the beloved brand of Gen Z people, pulling 2 experienced producers as executives. Expand the business structure, starting from creating artists, models, organizing concerts, producing series to strengthen the balance (Ma Than Hoon)

(+) SUSCO (Bloomberg Consensus 6.80 baht) is confident that the revenue in 2022 will reach 30,000 million baht from the year 2021 which was able to make 20,184.77 million baht. As for oil sales, the last 3 months are active. And jet fuel (JET) came in to support Currently, the sales volume has increased by about 40% and is expected to increase continuously. from the steadily improving tourism sector (source Thun Hoon)


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