Stock exchanges fear economic skid marks of the trade dispute


In the coming week, the upcoming economic data are particularly relevant.

(Photo: AP)

FrankfurtWith his tariff threat against Mexico, US President Donald Trump once again forces the stock markets to their knees. That's why on Friday many important exchanges lost more than one percent in value. In return, the "safe havens" benefited, such as first-rate government bonds and gold.

Trump wants to urge neighboring Mexico to threaten illegal immigration to the US with the threat of punitive tariffs. This affected in particular the Mexican currency and the domestic stock market. Mexico is the largest trading partner of the USA. So far investors have not had this conflict on their radar.

That was also the reason for the higher losses of German car stocks on Friday. Values ​​such as Daimler, Volkswagen and BMW lost two to four percent, because the companies have extensive business in Mexico. In addition, analysts fear that after China and Mexico Europe could be the next of Trump's tariff threats.

Meanwhile, the conflict with China is still smoldering, most recently threatening Beijing with a shortage of rare earths. China is the world's largest exporter of these important metals for the high-tech industry. The USA also sources 80 percent of these raw materials from China. A bottleneck could severely damage the global economy.

"There is no winner in a trade war," say the analysts of the bank Metzler. The industrial chains between the US and China are highly integrated and would complement each other to a large extent. "The longer the topic draws, the clearer the economic skid marks become," the Metzler experts say.

By the fall, the trend could be down

Similarly, the well-known asset manager Jens Ehrhardt assesses the situation. "The main obstacle to a better international economic development is the trade war," he said. In the short term, the trend for the shares could go down until autumn.

The beneficiaries of the crisis were once again first-class government bonds. The yield on the ten-year Bund fell as a mirror image to a new record low below the 0.2 percent mark. Investors also bought gold, which drove the troy ounce price to around $ 1300.

Under these circumstances, the upcoming economic data of the new week should be given special attention. Purchasing managers' indices from Europe and the USA are scheduled for Monday. On Wednesday, additional numbers from overseas will follow on retail sales, the labor market and the Federal Reserve's economic report.

Thursday is under German sign. The order intake from industry is planned. This is followed by the interest rate decision of the European Central Bank. In addition, more numbers come from the US labor market. The data series ends on Friday. The day begins with information on German industrial production. After that, the US labor market data will attract attention.

More: New US punitive tariffs against Mexico would be devastating to the country's auto industry. What the threats of Donald Trump say about him as a negotiator.

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