Expected index top 2,650… “High level of credit and loan balance, factors for downward expansion”
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Lee Mi-ryeong = There is a pessimistic forecast that the KOSPI, which plummeted last month due to concerns about an economic downturn, may drop to 2,200 this month.
According to the financial investment industry on the 1st, the expected fluctuation range (band) of securities companies’ KOSPI in July is 2,200~2,500 for Shinhan Investment, 2,230~2,450 for KB Securities, 2,250~2,500 for Korea Investment & Securities, 2,250~2,550 for Kiwoom Securities, and 2,250~ for Cape Investment & Securities. 2,520, Kyobo Securities 2,350-2,650, etc.
The KOSPI fell to 2,300 units last month due to a surge in US inflation and the Federal Reserve’s Giant Step (a 0.75 percentage point increase in the key interest rate at a time) and concerns about an economic recession.
Securities companies diagnosed that it is difficult to expect a trend reversal as the KOSPI is expected to increase volatility in July due to continued concerns about economic recession and downward revisions to corporate earnings.
Kim Hyung-ryeol, head of Kyobo Securities’ Research Center, said, “In June, risk-avoidance sentiment reached a peak due to the emergence of a stronger-than-expected tightening monetary policy. “diagnosed.
“The stock market in July expects a rebound to the extent that the stock price, which has fallen due to an irrational reaction, is restored to a fair value level,” he said.
Shinhan Investment Researcher Noh Noh-gil, who suggested the lowest level of the KOSPI band in July at 2,200, said, “As the downward revision of KOSPI’s earnings is expected to begin in earnest from July, it is difficult to obtain credibility in valuations based on earnings. “From the perspective of the lagging price-to-asset ratio (PBR), it is expected to fluctuate between 0.9 and 1.0 times,” he explained.
Dae-Jun Kim, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities Co., said, “The strength of the dollar will subside due to monetary tightening in Europe and Japan amid the US economic slowdown. will show.”
However, he pointed out, “The market response is still not an index, but an industry.” He pointed out that “in the medium term, it is possible to buy a split index, but it will take time to confirm the performance.”
Some are pointing out that credit transactions and counter-trading (CFD) transactions, which are blamed for the large drop in the domestic stock market last month, could increase downward pressure on the stock market this month.
Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at Cape Investment & Securities, said, “The correction of the stock market due to the reduction in valuations has come to an end.” .
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2022/07/01 12:03 Send