Sudan and partition scenarios… Written by: Asmaa Al-Husseini

asmaalhusainy@hotmail.com

The two parties to the conflict in Sudan, the Army and the Rapid Support Forces, began the sixth month of their bloody, devastating war with fierce battles that targeted civilians, vital installations, and prominent landmarks in the capital, Khartoum, while fighting continued in a number of other states in Darfur and Kordofan and expanded to new areas, amid great fears and warnings of the division of the country. The commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), threatened that if the Sudanese army announced a government in Port Sudan, in the east of the country, he would announce his government in the areas it controls, which presents the Libyan model that divided the country into east and west with two discordant, conflicting governments.

Opinions were divided inside and outside Sudan about the extent to which this Libyan model could be repeated in Sudan, as many doubted the possibility of the Rapid Support forming a government, and some saw that Hemedti’s statements were only to put pressure on his rival, Sudanese army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to obstruct his efforts to establish his legitimacy and situation and to obstruct what he describes as plans. The remnants of the former regime are Islamists who are fighting it alongside the army, and while some saw that Hemedti’s formation of a government that includes the areas under his control in Khartoum and the states of Darfur and Kordofan could only be achieved by neutralizing the air force owned by the army and with which it widely targets the locations where the Rapid Support Forces are stationed, he also saw They say that the idea of ​​large areas belonging to either party is unrealistic because each of Sudan’s regions has a population mixture that is difficult to lead or direct in a unilateral manner, in addition to the difficulty of the issue of internal and external recognition, and other reasons related to the presence of other military parties that control areas of land. But despite all the complexities and difficulties that prevent countries from realizing this scenario on the ground, there are great fears now among large segments of Sudanese that their state will be torn apart due to the continuation and expansion of the brutal, merciless war and the resulting atrocities, bitterness and hatred, as well as the interwoven ethnic dimensions. And what increases the fears and concerns is the silence of the international and regional community, and even what they consider to be its complicity, which led to the continuation of the hellish war and its expansion.

The Forces of Freedom and Change were quick to warn both sides of the conflict against the consequences of forming two governments in the areas they control, saying that this could lead to the fragmentation of Sudan, and that this trend sows the seeds of the fragmentation of Sudan’s unity, deepens the conflict and expands the circle of war in preparation for turning it into a comprehensive civil war, and stressed that it will take A number of steps were taken to confront plans to divide Sudan and work to stop them.

It remains that the partition scenario, although it is now being presented at the level of statements, ideas and possibilities, nevertheless sends very strong messages to all concerned parties, because all the catastrophic developments in Sudan begin with ideas that initially seem impossible but quickly turn into a fire that burns the country, and the first parties concerned with these messages are They are the national leaders in all Sudanese camps in order to move to save the country from loss and falling not only into the abyss of division, but into the swamp of chaos, fragmentation and statelessness. The messages are also directed to the parties concerned and mourning the unity, peace and stability of Sudan in the region, and any destabilization of Sudan will be Its unity is a threat to its security, stability, and interests, and the first way to block these plans is to stop the war that has opened and continues to open the door to all evils and disasters.

The Sudanese scene seemed to be in a state of competition between those who fanned the flames of war and the advocates of extinguishing and stopping it. There are parties in the first group that believe that their continuation in the scene depends on the continuation of the war or its ending in their favor, because any halt to the war now means handing over power to civilians, and others want to resolve the war militarily, and it appears that This goal is unattainable, and the entire Sudanese people seemed willing to stop the war and restore peace and stability despite the campaigns of mobilization, incitement, and deception, because they are the ones who pay the heavy price at all levels, and the scale of the atrocities, violations, and crimes committed against them on a daily basis is horrific, and according to eyewitnesses, these crimes are too great to bear. It is limited or expressed verbally. Segments of the Sudanese people, despite their current state of weakness, repression, and oppression, have begun to express their anger and complaint about the continuation of war, destruction, intimidation, and the driving of both sides of the fight by the youth and the people to their deaths. A movement has begun that is still in its infancy in the United States. Far from the battles against the continuation of the war or the division of the country.

While the Forces of Freedom and Change seek to build a broad front in order to stop the war and restore the democratic civil path, through their recent meeting with political and professional forces and resistance committees in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, an opposing force is now forming, calling itself the Sudanese National Forces, and holding its meetings in the city of Sinkat. In eastern Sudan, after another meeting held in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, this bloc supports the Sudanese army and wants to form a government that will be a civil incubator for it. This bloc accuses the Forces of Freedom and Change of being allies of the Rapid Support, and the national forces consist of the Democratic Bloc, the National Movement Forces, civil society organizations, and parties.

The past few days have witnessed many divisions within party forces and entities, against the backdrop of the position on the ongoing war, most notably the seismic division within the Justice and Equality Movement, and it seems that this will not be the last division among the Sudanese forces.

While Lieutenant General Al-Burhan continues his foreign tours after his departure from Khartoum to Port Sudan, which included Egypt, South Sudan, Qatar, Eritrea, Uganda and Turkey, in an attempt to confirm his legitimacy and explain his positions to the leaders of those countries, and to thwart the effects of the movements undertaken by the delegations of the Forces of Freedom and Change or Hemedti’s advisors, and she confirmed All countries maintain their position calling for stopping the war and supporting the Sudanese people.

Meanwhile, tensions continued between the leaders of the Sudanese army and the African Union, and the clashes continued after the Chairman of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki, and his chief of staff, Al-Hassan Ould Labat, received a delegation of advisors to the Rapid Support Commander.

In a remarkable development coinciding with this Sudanese movement, the UN Secretary-General’s envoy to Sudan, Volker Peretz, announced his resignation from his position, warning of the danger of the conflict in Sudan turning into a civil war. The resignation came months after he was classified as an undesirable person by the Sudanese authorities, and he carried Peretz, in his last report before the Security Council, placed both sides of the conflict, the army and the Rapid Support, responsible for the continuation of the war. He said that there is no sign of calm, and it does not appear that any party is close to achieving a decisive military victory. Peretz, whose supporters of the army tried to portray his resignation as a victory for them, confirmed this in his last testimony. “The need for both parties to the conflict to understand that they cannot act with complete impunity, and that they must bear the consequences of the crimes committed.”

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in an important statement after accepting the resignation of his envoy to Sudan that he “does not believe that the UN Security Council is able to unite easily and take a decision to impose a solution to the crisis in Sudan.”

In light of all this Sudanese, regional and international confusion and all these intersections surrounding the Sudanese scene, several facts emerge that cannot be overlooked. The first of them is that the bill for this armed madness in Sudan will be spent by the Sudanese people for decades to come to pay its costs and try to overcome its loss and human pain. The second truth is that rational and sincere people must… Sudan, the region, and the world: Accelerating the end of this disastrous war and presenting a comprehensive equation to build a new state in Sudan that accommodates all its people and is based on rights, duties, institutions, and achieving justice and a decent life for all the people of Sudan. The third truth is that failure to stop the war and establish a new, fair equation in Sudan will open the door wide for entry. Sudan is in a dark, long-term tunnel for which Sudan, the region, and the world will pay.