Supply and demand tend to weaken PVC will face more pressure | Cinda Futures_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Cinda Futures Author: Cinda Futures

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1. Investors continue to weigh the outlook for energy demand and continue to pay attention to the European Union negotiations on the upper limit of crude oil prices in a European country. Crude oil futures fell for three days in successive Brent in January fell 1.71 to 83.63 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 2.00%.

2. The People’s Bank of China lowered the reserve deposit ratio by 0.25 percentage points, releasing a total of about 500 billion yuan of long-term funds.

3. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, industrial enterprises above the designated size realized an operating income of 111.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%; realized a total profit of 6,976.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%.

strategic advice

PVC

Disk performance: the 5-day moving average and the 20-day moving average turned up, the 60-day moving average turned down, and the price rebounded quickly. Strong expectations underpin prices, which have strengthened in recent months.

Spot transaction: The domestic market price of PVC continued to rise, the market atmosphere improved, the futures fluctuated higher, and the market point price had no advantage. It means that the transaction is acceptable, and most of them indicate that the enthusiasm to pursue downstream is not up high, and the transaction is not good. The mainstream price of Type 5 in East China is 6050-6120 yuan/ton.

Core logic: Optimism is brewing, futures and random prices are strengthening rapidly, and futures are rebounding to higher heights. Obviously, the dominant factor is expected to account for a larger share. As prices rise, new variables appear in supply and demand, mainly weak and stable demand, supply gradually recovers, and the import window gradually expands, supply and demand tend to weaken, and it is expected that the peak will face more pressure.

Suggested action: wait and see, wait for suggestions.

1. production profit

2. Inventory

3. Basis spread

【Polyolefin】

Disk performance: the 5-day moving average turns up, the 20-day moving average slopes up, the 60-day moving average moves flat, and the price shows a rebound trend on i up It is about to enter the peak period of changing positions, and the logic of provision dominates.

Spot transactions: The trading atmosphere in the spot market was boosted, some petrochemicals raised their ex-factory prices, and some bids rose slightly. The mainstream price of LLDPE is 8100-8650 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of drawing in East China is 7750-7870 yuan / ton.

Core logic: The demand side is seasonally weakening, supply is maintaining a neutral position, supply and demand flows are temporarily balanced, and inventory remains largely destocked. Raw materials and polyolefins price trends have diverged in the near term, and profits will recover in the short term. The reality has not followed up the strong expectations yet, and the surface space is limited.

Suggested action: wait and see, wait for suggestions.

1. production profit

2. Inventory

3. Basis spread

Related species PVC polyethylene related company: Cinda Futures
Related species PVC polyethylene related company: Cinda Futures

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