Swiss Franc Expands Rally Yen weakens as returns recover –


Swiss Franc remains strongest for today while other markets are relatively quiet. The yen weakened slightly and US and European yields recovered. But the dollar continued to depreciate on overall sentiment. Aussies and Kiwis are the worst performers. followed by the yen and the dollar. Swiss Franc and Sterling are the strongest.

Technically, CHF/JPY may be ready to revert to the latest uptrend as well. The focus is now 141.86 at the top temporarily. The break will continue bullish confirmation and target 100%. Estimated at 127.48 to 137.77 from 134.00 at 144.29 will continue. Meanwhile, USD/CHF is hitting 0.9543 support. Strong support is expected to complete the triple wave consolidation from 1.0063 and causing a rebound But the breakout of 0.9543 will bring the support down to 0.9459 resistance.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE was up 1.68%, DAX was up 0.81%, CAC was up 2.04%, Germany’s 10-year yield was up 0.043 at 1.471 earlier in Asia. Nikkei up 1.23% Hong Kong HSI up 2.09% China Shanghai SSE up 0.89% Singapore Straits Times up 0.61% Japan 10-year JGB yield down -0.0015 to 0.234.

ECB Centeno: Fragmentation must be managed from the start

ECB Governing Council Member Mario Centeno said the new tool would “Fighting the risk of fragmentation” as monetary policy gradually normalize He stressed that fragmentation had to be dealt with. “In situ and not later”

this tool “It will clearly demonstrate the commitment of the Eurozone and the Council of Governors to mitigate these risks.”

“There is not a single type of indicator to measure the presence of dispersion,” he added. “There are no specific target margin values.”

Germany’s Ifo business climate drops to 92.3

Germany’s Ifo business climate declined slightly from 93.0 to 92.3 in June. The current assessment index fell from 99.6 to 99.3, above expectation of 99.0. The Expectation Index fell 86.9 to 85.8, below expectations of 87.4.

According to the manufacturing sector, it decreased from 2.7 to 0.3, services increased from 8.2 to 10.8, trade decreased from -10.7 to -14.8, construction increased from -13.4 to -9.7.

Ifo said: “Companies are somewhat less satisfied with their current business situation. Their expectations were clearly more pessimistic. The threat of gas shortages is a huge problem for the German economy.”

UK retail sales fell -0.5% mom linked to impact of food prices and cost of living.

UK retail volumes fell -0.5% mom in May. Better-than-expected -0.9% mom Fuel sales fell -0.7% mom, better-than-expected -1.4% mom.

In the 12-month period, retail sales were down -4.7% yoy versus expectation of -4.5% yoy. Fuel sales were down -5.7% yoy compared to expectations of -5.1% yoy.

ONS said: “The drop in sales volume during the month was attributed to restaurants, which dropped 1.6%; Declining spending in restaurants appears to be linked to the impact of higher food prices and the cost of living.”

UK Gfk Consumer Confidence Drops To -41 In June record low

UK Gfk consumer confidence dropped from -40 to -41 in June. which meets the expectation and set a new record low Personal financial situation over the next 12 months dropped from -25 to -28 Overall economic situation over the next 12 months dropped from -56 to -57

“With a headline score of -41 in June, the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer has set a record low for the second consecutive month…. Consumer moods are now darker than at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the consequences of the 2016 Brexit referendum and even the panic of the 2008 global financial crisis, and now there is talk of a “disaster recovery.” an impending recession.”

BoJ Amamiya: Will continue to support the economy with monetary easing

Masayoshi Amamiya, BoJ deputy governor, said: “The BOJ will continue to support the economy through monetary easing to achieve inflation targets in a sustainable and stable manner with rising wages.”

Amamiya also said the economy was recovering on a trend. but is facing a “very high” uncertainty. We must keep a close eye on the impact financial and currency market movements may have on the Japanese economy and prices,” he added.

Japan’s CPI was unchanged at 2.1% yoy, above target for a second month.

Japan’s CPI (all items except fresh food) was unchanged at 2.1% yoy in May. which meets the expectation That was the second month that consumer core inflation was above the BoJ CPI 2% target. All items were unchanged at 2.5% yoy, below expectations 2.9% yoy CPI core-core (all items except food, energy) was unchanged at 0.8. % yoy was higher than expected at 0.4% yoy.

But Deputy Chief Secretary Seiji Kihara warned at a press conference that “We think it is necessary to pay close attention to the negative risks of the economy, such as driving down private consumption and corporate activity.”

USD/CHF Daytime trend

Daily rotation: (S1) 0.9567; (R) 0.9629; (R1) 0.9676; more than…

USD/CHF tumbles from 1.0048 into the third leg of a correction from 1.0063. Strong support is likely around 0.9543 to control the negative for rebounds. On the other hand, slight resistance above 0.9731 would. Revert bias back to bullish to test the resistance at 1.0063 again. However, a break of 0.9543 will bring the support back down to 0.9459. The resistance has turned into support.

Overall, the downtrend from 1.0342 (2016 high) is likely to be completed. With three waves already down to 0.8756 (lowest 2021), an increase from 0.8756 is likely its own mid-term uptrend. The next target is the 1.0237/0342 resistance zone. This will continue to be a favored case as long as the 0.9471 support and resistance level is in place. However, a continued break at 0.9471 will prolong the trading life in the long term by means of a breakthrough. down again

Update economic indicators

GMT Ccy activity real prophecy before correct
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Jun. -41 -41 -40
11:30 p.m. Japanese Yen National CPI Core Y/Y May 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
23:50 Japanese Yen Corporate Services Price Index Y/Y May 1.80% 1.50% 1.70%
06:00 GBP Retail sales M/M May -0.50% -0.90% 1.40% 0.40%
06:00 GBP Retail sales Y/Y May -4.70% -4.50% -4.90% -5.70%
06:00 GBP Ex-fuel M/M retail sales May -0.70% -1.40% 1.40% 0.20%
06:00 GBP Retail sales ex-fuel year/year May -5.70% -5.10% -6.10% -6.90%
8:00 a.m. EUR German IFO Business Atmosphere Jun 92.3 92.9 93
8:00 a.m. EUR Germany IFO Current Assessment Jun 99.3 99 99.5 99.6
8:00 a.m. EUR German IFO Expectations Jun 85.8 87.4 86.9
14:00 dollar Selling a new house in May 605K 591K
14:00 dollar Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Jun F 50.2 50.2

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