Question 164Emperor’s Award, Autumn(GI, turf 2000m) is showing the appearance of “three-strong”. Aim to conquer the 3rd classGran Alegria, Last year’s undefeated Triple Crown HorseContrail, This year’s Satsuki Sho horseEfforiaThe showdown is reminiscent of 2008, when Vodka, Daiwa Scarlet and Deep Sky played a close battle in front of the goal.
However, since 1985, when it came into effect at Tokyo Shiba 2000m, the years in which the first, second, and third popularity dominated the top were in 2008, 1997 (Air Groove, Bubble Gum Fellow, Genuine), and so on. There are only three cases in 1989 (Super Creek, Oguri Cap, and Medilo Ardan).
Last year, Almond Eye, which was supported by the most popular with a win of 1.4 times, achieved consecutive victories, but Fierement was the 5th most popular in 2nd place and Chrono Genesis was the 2nd most popular in 3rd place. The third most popular Danon Kingly sank to the bottom 12th place.
Seeing that there is a chance to take advantage of the “three-strong” this year as well, we will aim for the rise of Anoma from the consideration of the three horses.
◆[Tenno Sho Autumn 2021 Forecast / Overtake Judge]Highly rated over Gran Alegria “I can see the intention to relieve my regrets”
■ Gran Alegria after throat ringing surgery
First of all, GI 5 wins with sprints and milesGran Alegria.. After losing to 4th place at the Osaka Hai in the spring, he aimed to win the 3rd class again, but after 2nd place at Yasuda Kinen, a throat squealing symptom called “epiglottic entrapment” was discovered, and after surgery, this time. Face.
Fortunately, it was mild, but after the respiratory surgery, horses, which originally had a main battlefield of less than a mile, are not completely uneasy about challenging the 2000m GI. The Emperor’s Award, Autumn, where the speed of mares, including the Almond Eye, which achieved consecutive victories, is a weapon, but all of them must go through the battle process smoothly.
For the past 10 years, the mare’s Emperor’s Award, Autumn is[2-2-2-8]. Almond Eye was the first and second place, and the same horse as Gentildonna was used for the second and second place, and not as many mares as the image has been active. I would like to keep the evaluation here as “▲”.
■ Efforia is also a 3-year-old top class …
Then the 3-year-old horseEfforia.. There is no doubt that the horse, who won the Satsuki Sho undefeated and showed an activity that was as close to a double crown as possible with a Hana difference of 2nd place in Japan Derby, is at the top class level of 3 years old. However, it is new to remember that Saturnalia in 2019, who also won the Satsuki Sho in the same year and lost to 6th place, was the second most popular, and the wall of old horses is still thick.
In fact, in the last 10 years, the 3-year-old horse’s Emperor’s Award, Autumn is[0-1-1-9]. Fenomeno, 2nd in Japan Derby, was the most popular 2nd place in 2012, and Isla Bonita, 2nd in Japan Derby, was the most popular 3rd place in Satsuki Shouma in 2014, but in 2012, 5 races were undefeated so far. Curren Black Hill, who was proud of his performance, was the third most popular and lost to the fifth place.
Tokyo has a perfect record of[2-1-0-0]including the overwhelming victory of the Tokinominoru Cup, but the Nakayama Satsuki Award showed the strongest performance. The Nakayama / Arima Kinen at the end of the day is also in sight, so is the aim ahead of the direct Rote? I want to see the situation with a “△” evaluation.
■ Contrail with no blind spots
Finally, last year’s undefeated Triple Crown HorseContrailConsider. After the Kikuka-sho, he finished second in the “Triple Crown Horse Showdown” with Almond Eye and Daring Tact at Japan C, and started at the Osaka Cup this year, but finished third in Yomoya. He was caught in a heavy riding ground due to heavy rain, and he couldn’t catch Lei Papale who had escaped. However, the competition with Gran Alegria was dismissed, and the content was dressed up.
It took Hanshin Shiba 2000m 2 minutes 1 second 6 and race finish 36 seconds 8 only for the horse who ran through at 1 minute 44 seconds 5 which set the 2-year record of Tokyo Shiba 1800m at 1 second 4 at the Tokyo Sports Cup 2 years old S. There is no doubt that the speed of the taste was reduced at the Osaka Hai. Also, after the Osaka Hai, all the racehorses took time to recover from fatigue, but they avoided the Takarazuka Kinen as soon as possible in anticipation of autumn. I like the fact that I prepared for the last two races until I retired.
For the past 10 years, the data of[4-5-1-27]and[6-4-3-57]which are the leading trends in the fall leg quality of the Emperor’s Award, also show that the horse is good at “ranking”. It will be a boosting material. If it is No. 1 in 1 frame, you can save the last leg in a good position, and you can aim to reproduce the Japanese derby that you can slowly collect the legs in the middle of the road and play straight. Only one of the “three-strong” has no blind spot.
Here, centering on Contrail, we would like to lower the evaluation of Gran Alegria and Efforia, which have anxiety factors, and incorporate Anoma into the opponent to aim for a high dividend. “Part 2(Scheduled to be updated at 17:00 on Saturday) ”will introduce three Anomas that have the potential to break into the top three.
◆[Tenno Sho Autumn 2021 Forecast / Overtake Judge]Highest rating on Contrail “S” 2 weeks in a row, “This is the finish of Machi”
◆[Tenno Sho Autumn 2021 Forecast / Dangerous Popular Horse]“Oanauma”, which is less than the 10th most popular horse, “Hidden leg strength” shown after the previous goal
◆[Tenno Sho Autumn 2021 Forecast / Data Capture]The tailwind of “5-0-0-0”, an ambush who destroys the three strongest strongholds, causes turmoil.
▼ UMAJIN Channel “Winning! Okai Juku-Tenno Sho / Autumn Edition”
Author profile
Tsuyoshi Yamada ● Editor-in-chief of “SPREAD”
Editor-in-chief of “SPREAD”, a media that conveys the true face of athletes. After working as a writer for travel and outdoor magazines, he entered the horse racing industry as the editor-in-chief of the monthly horse racing magazine “UMAJIN”. After that, he was involved in sports x gamification business such as “B.LEAGUE”, “PGA” and “RIZIN” at Neo Sports, and continues to the present. Horse racing has been pursuing the Anoma prediction since being shocked by the runaway of the 16th most popular 2nd place Meisho Tesoro in the 1995 Mile CS.
