This week at Tokyo RacecourseEmperor’s Award, Autumn(Shiba 2000m) will be held. A dream match in which last year’s Triple Crown horse, the famous female who completely conquered the old horse Mile GI, and this year’s Satsuki Sho horse face each other. I would like to expect a battle that is reminiscent of the 2020 Japan Cup and that will heat up what you see.
In this article, I would like to unravel the Emperor’s Award / Autumn from the data side and find a clue to the strategy.
◆[Tenno Sho Autumn 2021 Forecast / Data Strategy / Part 2]Will the tailwind of “5-0-0-0”, an ambush horse that destroys the three strongest strongholds, cause turmoil?
■ For Efforia, “Derby’s 3-year-old horse” is a tailwind
With 4 straight winsSatsuki ShoWin.Welcomed with a big favoriteJapan DerbyHas proved the top class ability of the generation once again with the second place in the Hana difference.Efforia.. In the fall, I went to this stage with a bumping performance without going to the Kikuka Award or overseas horse racing. Whether it is possible to overcome the wall of old horses … Here is the following data.
・ Three-year-old horse within 2nd place in Derby in the same year[0-1-1-0]
At first glance, the population parameter seems small. However, going back in time, Symboli Kris S, Deep Sky, Genuine and good-running horses are in a row. If you expand the range after 1990, the number will jump to[1-2-2-0]. Of the top three, only Efforia has experience with the Tokyo Shiba 2000m. It is quite possible that a 3-year-old horse will unify the world with the advantage of stage suitability.
■ The wall of “Deep Impact production piece that controlled the derby” on the contrail
Achieved the same undefeated Triple Crown as his father Deep ImpactContrail.. The birth of a new hero who appeared in Corona’s wrath greatly excited the horse racing world last year, but this time, data that became a blind spot emerged.
・ Deep Impact who won the derby GI results after 4 years old[0-0-2-18]
At present, Wagnerian has only finished 3rd, and Kizuna didn’t even come true in the betting ticket. It cannot be said that it is precocious, but the impression that the Deep Impact production piece that shined as a derby horse became an old horse and the growth curve stopped. It seems that it is necessary to make a careful judge, including the fact that the damage of the Osaka Hai has trailed.
■ “100% betting ticket rate” data to support Gran Alegria
spring isVictoria MileCompletely conquered Kouma Mile GI. Got the 5th GI titleGran Alegria.. Although it was unmatched on the mile route, this time the stage is 2000m turf. Considering distance anxiety, the horse seems to be the least popular in the “three-strong”, but here is the data that makes your index finger move unintentionally.
・ A mare over 4 years old who won the GI in the same year[2-1-1-0]
The betting ticket rate is an amazing 100%. Almond Eye, Gentildonna, and Chrono Genesis are the horses, but the value of the GI victory that year is immeasurable. Compared to the villainous Baba and the Osaka Cup, which was a small turn course, the Tokyo Shiba 2000m, which is supposed to be a good Baba, is in good condition. In the past, Mile GI winners such as Vodka, Maurice and Almond Eye have achieved second-class domination, and the possibility of three-class domination combined with Sprint Mile should be assumed.
Part 2Now, I would like to introduce two candidates for the Tenno Sho Autumn Anoma that emerge from the data side.
◆[Tenno Sho Autumn 2021 Forecast / Data Strategy / Part 2]Will the tailwind of “5-0-0-0”, an ambush horse that destroys the three strongest strongholds, cause turmoil?
Tenno Sho Autumn 2021 Expected Column List
▼ Data forecast
◆[Jockey data]Pay attention to the 3 jockeys whose numerical value is “rapidly rising” when the conditions are met. There is a possibility of one shot for a big veteran of Miho.
▼ Expected overtake
◆[S evaluation]The highest evaluation “S” is a leading horse that has reached the climax “This is the finish of the mate”
◆[B rating]Gran Alegria has a low rating of “B”.
◆[A rating]Higher rating than Gran Alegria “I can see the intention to relieve my regrets”
◆[A rating]”A rating” for ambush soldiers who are estimated to be 10 or less popular, and “improve the sign as planned” under the best conditions
▼ Anoma forecast
◆[Anoma Analyze / Part 1]Efforia has anxiety factors in 2 of the “△” rated “3 strong”
◆[Anoma Analyze / Part 2]3 The “planet” of the collapse is a winning ticket. “Buying” material that can be emphasized
◆[Dangerous popular horse / Part 1]One of the top three horses is “erased”.
◆[Dangerous popular horse / Part 2]Assumed 10 or less popular “Oana horse” “Hidden leg strength” shown after the previous run goal
▼ Other data trends
◆[Tendency in order of frames]The 3 frames with the top 3 corners of Efforia are the “demon gates” of “0 consecutive pairs” in the past 10 years.
◆[Leg quality tendency]Horses in 1st to 3rd place rise “Double win rate 100%” Gran Alegria that does not collapse at the end of Fuchu is immovable
◆[Previous Rote]Mainichi Okan has the most wins with a win rate of 6.1%, which is different from the other route group backed by data.
◆[Popularity trend]The most popular is honestly reliable, but what you should hold down is the win recovery rate of “431” …
▼ Horse Racing Story Teller, Motonari Tahara’s Group Race Analysis TV “Tenno Sho Autumn”
Author profile
Motonari Tahara (Near Tahara) ● Horse-race critic
“Horse Racing Story Teller” continues to convey the appeal of horse racing predictions to the world. He is fascinated by the mystery of his expectations, and wrote a horse racing book in the fields of rotation and pedigree. Currently writing a column at “Horse Racing Salon” in UMAJIN[Horse Racing Critic Motonari Tahara’s Perspectives on Expectations]. In “SPREAD”, we will unravel the background that can be read from data analysis and convey “the essence of horse racing behind the data”.
