Kasikorn Research Center Summary of the movement of the baht The baht weakened to 38.45 baht per dollar. This is the weakest statistic for over 16 years after the MPC meeting. but partially recovered at the end of the week The baht faced selling pressure following the pressure of the yuan. (Weakest in 14 years) and regional currencies amid concerns over global economic outlook dollar garden The appreciation followed US bond yields. an indication of the Fed’s rate hike trend
However, the baht’s depreciation frame partially slowed after the Bank of England bought a bond. and the detention of the yuan by the People’s Bank of China which prompted selling of the dollar to adjust positions and take profits before the end of the quarter
However, the investment position of foreign investors must be monitored. Which is on the net sell side of Thai stocks and bonds continuously throughout the week. For that attitude towards the baht a signal from the Bank of Thailand reflecting that it will take care of the period when the movement of the baht is unusually volatile But it must not contradict the direction of the market.
On Friday, September 30, 2022, the baht closed at 37.80 baht per dollar. After touching the weakest level in more than 16 years at 38.45 baht per dollar. After the meeting of the MPC compared to the level of 37.47 baht per US dollar On the previous Friday (September 23), while between September 26-30, foreign investors sold Thai shares net of 7,148 million baht and had net outflow status from the bond market about 22,629 million baht (Split into net sales of bonds of 22,379 million baht and expired debt securities of 250 million baht)
For the next week (October 3-7), Kasikorn Bank sees the baht moving frame at 37.50-38.20 baht per dollar. While the Kasikorn Research Center assesses the key factors that need to be monitored, including the September inflation numbers. Thailand’s foreign capital flow and currency situation in the region
while the important US economic numbers are the number of non-farm payrolls. unemployment rate Private Employment Data, PMI and ISM Index, Manufacturing/Service Sector, September. Factory orders for August and the number of weekly unemployment benefit claims
The market is also awaiting the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand meetings. Eurozone August Producer Price Index, including September manufacturing/services PMI from Japan, England and the Eurozone
