The baht opened this morning at 34.62 baht/dollar, appreciating from yesterday’s level of 34.80 baht/dollar. The baht is expected to move today at 34.50/34.80 baht/dollar.
The baht moved in the direction of appreciation against the US dollar. After continuously depreciating for more than two weeks. Partly due to the positive factor of the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates constant at this month’s meeting.
The CME Group’s latest FedWatch Tool indicates that 70.4% of investors are leaning on the Fed holding rates at 5.00-5.25% at its June 13-14 meeting, and 29.6% are leaning on a Fed hike. Interest rate 0.25% to 5.25-5.50%
gold price today The market closes, moving up 50 baht. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates on June 14.
Rising interest rates are not over yet, pushing the MPC to 2.25% at the end of the year.
along with easing concerns about the US debt deficit After the US House of Representatives passed a bill to expand the debt ceiling yesterday. The Senedd will consider the bill today. Causing the police to return to buying more dangerous assets.
Department of Money Markets and International Transactions TMB Thanachart (ttb) recommends that you still need to keep an eye on non-farm employment numbers tonight, including fund flows that continue to flow out of the money market . Although it started to slow down a bit, it is still a negative factor for the baht during this period.
Advise importers to buy foreign currency in advance. to hedge exchange rate risk
Mr Poon Panichphiboon, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank, revealed that there are players in the US stock market. Starting to return to greater exposure to risks, with the S&P500 index rising more than +0.99% amid hopes that Congress could pass the bill to increase the debt ceiling. And it remains to be considered by the Senedd alone. which will happen in the morning today according to Thai time
In addition, the US stock market This was also supported by better than expected private sector employment data from ADP. Including statements from Fed officials who said the Fed may not need to raise interest rates at its June meeting.
in the bond market Although the atmosphere in the financial markets is more open to risk. But the opinion of the players in the reverse market believes that the Fed may keep the policy rate unchanged at its meeting in June, pushing the US 10-year bond yield down further to 3.60%.
in the currency market The dollar turned around to continue to weaken. compared to the base currency After market players came back to believe that the Fed may stop raising interest rates at its meeting in June. From what I used to think The Fed may continue to raise interest rates 1-2 more times, causing the latest dollar index (DXY) to drop to 103.5 points.
However, the dollar may turn sideways in anticipation of today’s US jobs data report. Although the financial markets are back in risk exposure. But the opinion of the market players expect the Fed to stop raising interest rates. As a result, the dollar and the US 10-year bond yield fell, boosting gold prices. (Gold Contract, COMEX market, presentation in August) There is a rhythm to test the zone level of 2,000 dollars per ounce. Before facing profit taking and falling to the level of 1,993 dollars per ounce
For today, the key highlights in the economic data section will be the labor market data report from the market Non-Farm Wages in May May drop to 180,000 from more than 2.5 hundred thousand in the previous month Reflecting the adjustment to the private sector employment scheme. Especially in the manufacturing sector which has been affected by rising interest rates. High cost of production and economic slowdown But overall employment in the services sector can remain good. This is in line with the continued expansion of the services sector. (Although it’s a slower growth rate.)
Market players will also pay attention to Average Hourly Earnings, if wages continue to grow +0.4% from the previous month, or at least 4.4% from the same period last year. It may still be a factor supporting inflation to slow down. And encourage the Fed to continue using tight monetary policy. And another important highlight is the US political factor. The players in the market will wait to see if the US Senate Will there be a decision to pass a bill to increase the debt ceiling or not?
about the trend of the baht last night The baht has a moment of appreciation According to the profit-taking gold transaction flow and the continued weakening of the dollar.
Although the employment data came out better than expected. But it probably won’t do much to boost the dollar unless jobs come out much higher than expected. And wage growth has accelerated more than expected.
