10 leading economic organizations When forecasting Thailand’s economy in 2023, which is estimated to grow in the range of 2.8-4%, it was found that the majority of them have started to break their targets from those previously assessed. Although tourism – domestic consumption recovered, but inflation – exports slowed down as pressure factors.
Thai e-finance news agency Compiled estimates of economic growth (GDP) for 2016 from 10 leading economic institutions, most of which still see Thailand’s GDP expanding at a slower rate from this year. But still able to grow at least 3% for sure, stimulated by the tourism sector which has returned to expand well and spending mainly in the country
***BOT is looking at tourism and consumption to support GDP in 2023
The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has revised its GDP forecast for the year 2023 on November 30, with an expected growth of 3.7%, slightly down from the previous estimate of 3.8% It is seen that the Thai economy has benefited from a clear recovery in tourism In 2023, 22 million tourists will come to Thailand. Private consumption continues to improve. It is supported by economic activities, particularly in the services sector. and a better labor market As a result, labor income has improved and is more dispersed.
However, although the tourism and consumption sectors have recovered well, in the coming period, risks to the economy and inflation must be monitored, for example, the global economic outlook is very uncertain and could slow down more than expected. The continuation of the recovery of the tourism sector and the transfer of costs that could increase to the business sector Including the adjustment of energy prices in countries that are still uncertain. This is an important factor that needs to be monitored in the future.
*** The World Bank points to a slowdown in global demand, dragging down Thailand’s economy.
while the World Bank (World Bank) has also lowered its GDP forecast for 2023, with next year’s GDP expected to grow to 3.6%, down from the previous forecast of 4.3%, as a result of the slowdown in demand the world is happening faster than expected The recovery of the tourism sector and private consumption is still the main factor in the growth of the Thai economy.
At the same time, Thailand is currently experiencing a slowdown in exports. which is close to other countries in ASEAN Reflecting the impact of the global economic slowdown, in 2023, exports are expected to expand by 2.1%, a sharp drop from the expected growth of 8.1% this year, by adjusting downward This reflected demand lower from major trading partners such as the United States, China, the Eurozone, etc.
*** Bank combines sound to cut GDP in 2013
while the side of the commercial bank Be it the Economic and Business Research Center EIC, Siam Commercial Bank. has revised down its projection for the Thai economy in 2023 to growth of just 3.4% from the previously expected growth of 3.7%.
Likewise, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank Public Company Limited or KKP has come out to adjust the forecast which is said to be the lowest this time, with next year’s Thai GDP expected to grow only 2.8% from the original and is expected to expand 3.6% , the general picture of the Thai economy in 2023 will recover slowly and not thoroughly. Even when traveling back from the risk of global economic recession Thailand’s economy will be affected by the global economic slowdown and there will be a greater risk of recession. after facing higher inflation risk Energy prices are increasing and a sharp increase in interest rates to slow inflation. causing the export sector to shrink
However, the group with regard to Thailand’s economy next year is still stable from the previous estimate, which is the Private Sectors Joint Committee of 3 Organizations (NESDB), Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council. or the latest The Economic and Business Outlook Center of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has estimated Thailand’s GDP figure in 2023 at 3.60%, which is within the same range previously estimated at 3.50-4%.
