Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Forecast as of 16 January 2023

Thaioil expects the price of West Texas Intermediate this week to move within the range of 71-83 USD per barrel, while Brent crude will move within the range of 76-88 USD.

Crude oil price trend (16 – 20 January ’23)

Crude oil prices continue to fluctuate. After the World Bank cut its 2023 global economic growth forecast as central banks in many countries raised interest rates. to slow inflation Causing the market to worry about the recession Although the United States crude oil production It is likely to increase in 2023 to alleviate the tight supply of crude oil. from Russian oil sanctions AND support global oil demand that has recovered from the COVID-19 epidemic. After China lifted the Zero-COVID measures that have been in force for more than 3 years, the market expected oil demand in China to improve.

Key factors expected to affect the oil price situation this week

– The World Bank cut its 2023 global growth forecast to 1.7% from a previously forecast 3.0%. It cut its growth forecasts for advanced economies, the US and Europe, to 0.5% and 0.0% in 2023 due to the central bank’s interest rate hike. to control the inflation rate that has risen significantly from the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war Although the Chinese economy is expected to grow at 4.3% from the opening of China to stimulate the domestic economy. After the economy contracted due to the Zero-COVID policy to control the epidemic for more than 3 years

– EIA in January 2023 forecasts global crude oil production in 2023 to average 101.1 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day from the previous year. Most of the increase in production came from the United States. It is likely to increase production by 0.55 million barrels per day from the previous year to 12.41 million barrels per day. This is the same level as before the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019, while Russian production is expected to fall by 1.5 million barrels per day. of European sanctions on Russian oil imports

– Russia has increased crude oil production at the Sakhalin-1 project at 150,000 barrels per day, or 65% of total production. and is likely to increase its production capacity to 220,000 barrels per day by 2023 after temporarily suspending operations. Because ExxonMobil announced the divestment in March. 65 years ago, with Russia taking over and still allowing Japanese companies to hold shares in the project. Russia exported 273,000 barrels of Sokol crude oil per day from the Sakhalin-1 project to Japan, Australia, Thailand and the United States during the pre-Russian-Ukrainian war.

– EIA forecasts in January 2023 world oil demand for 2023 increased by 1.05 million barrels per day from the previous year to 100.49 million barrels per day. China’s oil demand increased by 0.54 million barrels per day from the previous year to 15.70 million barrels per day. Although demand for oil in the United States and Europe fell slightly. Because the economy tends to go into recession. Although energy prices remain highly volatile. It can affect consumer demand tending to fall.

– The market expects demand for oil in China to increase. After China announced its second crude oil import quota from 2023, totaling 111.82 million tons after the first announcement in October. 65 a total of 19 million tonnes to be allocated to domestic refineries to increase production capacity to support domestic oil demand and economic activities which tend to recover. from opening up the country and relaxing measures to control the spread of COVID-19

– The economy to watch this week is manufacturing and industrial figures for December. US 65, Consumer Price Index (CPI) Dec 65, European GDP Q4/65 and Dec 65 retail sales. China is 65

Summary of the oil price situation during the last week (2 January – 6 January ’23)

West Texas Intermediate crude rose $5.23 to $79.86 a barrel last week, while Brent rose $5.63 to $85.28 a barrel.Dubai crude averaged $81.16 a barrel on recession worries after the US manufacturing index fell in December. 65 and this is the lowest number since May. 63 The EIA reports US crude stocks. The week ending January 6, 2023, increased by 1.9 million barrels to 439.6 million barrels. However, as China reopens the country and cancels the Zero-COVID policy, the market expects demand to global oil will increase in 2023. Although the US dollar depreciated to the lowest in 7 months, leading to crude oil contracts traded in US dollars. It is cheaper and more attractive to investors who hold other currencies.