Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Forecast as of 19 December 2022

Thaioil expects pricesWest Texas crude oilThis week, it will move in the range of 69-81 USD per barrel.Brentmoving within a range of 73-85 USD per barrel.

Crude oil price trend (19 – 23 December ’22)

Crude oil prices are improving because the epidemic situation in China tends to improve After China began to relax strict measures in many areas. Leads to supporting economic activities and global demand for oil The EIA in December 2022 predicts that global demand for oil is likely to increase from the previous year. After calling in China is likely to begin to recover from the epidemic. Although the market is keeping an eye on Russian oil exports. After Europe announced measures to limit the price ceiling (price cap) of Russian crude oil from December 5, 2022 onwards.

Key factors expected to affect the oil price situation this week

EIA The Dec 65 report forecast global oil demand to average 100.83 million barrels, down from the April forecast. 65 at 101.74 million barrels per day. Due to the effect of the economy which tends to go into recession. from the Fed’s continued interest rate hikes to slow inflation and China’s Zero-COVID policy used to continuously control the epidemic However, world oil demand is likely to increase by 1.0 million barrels per day from the previous year. It is expected that demand in Asia will likely fully recover from the epidemic. and demand in China started to improve If China relaxes stricter measures

– United States Federal Reserve (FED) decided to raise interest rates by 0.5% to 4.25 – 4.50% at the meeting on December 13-14 after the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States in November 2022 has fallen to 7.1% from 7.7% the previous month. Still at a high level, causing the FED to continue raising interest rates to slow inflation. The market expects the US interest rate to It is likely to rise to 5.1% in 2023, causing the market to continue to worry about the recession. pressure on global demand for oil

– China publicationretail sales figuresNovember 2022 had contracted 5.9% YoY, which is more than the market expectation of a 4.0% YoY contraction. 65 only rose 2.2% YoY, less than 5.0% YoY the previous month due to the situation of the spread of the COVID-19 virus in China, where China has taken strict measures to contain the spread in the past. Affecting economic activities in the country, however, China has started to relax measures to control COVID-19. In more areas, the market expects the economy and demand for oil in the country to improve.

– market concernscrude oil supplyTightening after the Keystone crude oil pipeline from Canada to the USA Started back to work again Stopped operations since December 7, 2022 due to a crude oil spill of more than 14,000 barrels, the largest crude oil spill in the United States States in a decade.

– The market continues to keep an eye on Russian oil exports. After Europe announced measures to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel from December 5, 2022, it will stop providing transport and shipping insurance services for Russian crude oil if the conditions of the price ceiling are not met, however ESPO crude oil Russian exports to China continued to trade above the ceiling, whileUrals grade crude oil It was trading at around $41.60 a barrel. which is still below the price ceiling set by Europe

– The economy to watch this week is the number. GDP Q3/65 The market expected growth of 2.9% QoQ, recovering from the previous quarter’s decline of -0.6% QoQ and the European Consumer Confidence Index in December. 65

Summary of the oil price situation during the last week (12 Dec. – 16 Dec. ’22)

West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.12 to $74.09 a barrel last week, while Brent rose $1.05 to $79.04 a barrel. Dubai crude averaged $76.54 a barrel after the Keystone oil spill. Causing the suspension of operations in the past Causing the market to worry about tight crude supply, while the FED decided to raise interest rates by 0.5% at the meeting on 13-14 December ’22, which was in line with expectations by the US market. For the week ended December 9, 2022, US stocks rose 10.2 million barrels, defying analysts’ expectations for a decline of 3.6 million barrels.