Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Forecast as of 30 January 2023

Crude oil price stabilized After the market kept an eye on the FED meeting on the decision to raise interest rates. Although China’s demand for oil has increased. after lifting epidemic control measures

Thaioil expects pricesWest Texas crude oilThis week, it will move within a range of 74-85 USD per barrel.Brent crude oilmove within a range of 80-91 USD per barrel.

Crude oil price trend (30 January – 3 February ’23)

The price of crude oil stabilizes After the expected market the Federal Reserve of the United States (FED) may reduce the level of the increase in the interest rate at the meeting on 31 January – 1 February ’23 to 0.25% after the inflation of the United States. continue to decline Although the demand for oil in China tends to increase. After China lifted measures to control the spread of COVID-19, however, the number of infected people in China continued to increase. It may affect the recovery of domestic oil demand. While the market keeps an eye on the OPEC + JMMC Meeting on February 1, 2023, the market expects the group to Maintain the original plan to cut production by 2.0 million barrels per day since November ’22.

Key factors expected to affect the oil price situation this week

– The market is keeping an eye on the United States Federal Reserve (FED) meeting on 31 January – 1 February ’23 regarding the decision to raise interest rates. After US inflation in December 2022 falls to 6.5% with US inflation. continue to decline which the market expects FED It is likely to reduce the rate of interest rate increase to 0.25% or 25 bps while the FED continues to use tight monetary policy to slow inflation to the target level of 2%, causing the market to continue to worry about a recession the US economy, depressed. use world oil

OPEC The January 2023 report predicts that world oil demand in 2023 will increase by 2.2 million barrels per day. Compared to the previous year to a level of 101.8 million barrels per day. China’s oil demand rose by 0.5 million barrels per day to reach 15.3 million barrels per day in 2023 as China lifted its epidemic containment measures. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) predicts that China’s international flights will increase to 80% of pre-epidemic levels in 2019. It is likely to have increased after China opened up the country on January 8, 2023.

– The market is keeping an eye on the meeting. OPEC+ JMMC meeting On February 1, 2023, the market expects the group to continue with its original plan to cut production at 2.0 million barrels in November. 65 The actual reduction is expected to be 1.0 million barrels per day. for the production volume in Dec. 65 was at 28.97 million barrels per day. an increase of 91,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. The group will monitor the situation closely. further consider the size of the group’s production

TTF gas price In Europe, it fell to less than 65 euros per megawatt hour on January 24, 2023 due to warmer than usual European weather. In addition, gas reserves in Europe are high, at around 77% of total reserves. As the cold weather spreads across Asia including China, Korea and Japan. Especially in northern China where the temperature is minus 53 degrees Celsius, causing the demand for energy to increase. As a result, coal and gas prices tend to increase.

– The market is keeping an eye on the European negotiations on the review of Russian crude oil and ceiling restrictions on refined oil prices. The review of the crude oil price ceiling is expected to be postponed until March. 66 and will use the original price of $60 per barrel. while the finished oil price will start to be negotiated soon and is expected to be announced before February 5, 2023

– The economy to watch this week is the China Manufacturing PMI (Manufacturing PMI) for January 2023, with the market expected to increase slightly from the previous month. The January 2023 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPI) and the European Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2023 are expected to rise to 9.7%.

Summary of the oil price situation during the last week (23 – 27 January 23)

West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.94 to $79.68 a barrel last week, while Brent fell $1.53 to $86.66 a barrel Dubai crude averaged $84.26 a barrel after the US released manufacturing index figures for January. 66 at a level of 46.6, below the level of 50, which reflects a slowdown in economic activity. Affects the demand for oil in the country. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil inventories ended January one million barrels, while the US crude oil rig count as of January 20, 2023 was down 10 rigs to 613 rigs. However , market expectations for oil demand in China tended to increase. after China canceled measures to control the spread of COVID-19 supporting global demand for oil


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