Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Forecast as of 6 February 2023

Thaioil expects the price of West Texas Intermediate crude this week to move within the range of 72-82 USD per barrel, while Brent crude will move within the range of 77-87 USD per barrel.

Crude Oil Price Trends (6 Feb – 10 Feb ’23)

Crude oil prices tend to improve. As demand for oil continues to grow, China is raising measures to control the spread of COVID-19. And restart opening the country again. In addition, the global economy is growing. It is expected to support oil demand growth at a high level, However, crude oil prices are still under pressure from increasing Russian crude oil exports and US crude inventories. expected to increase

Key factors expected to affect the oil price situation this week

– International Monetary Fund (IMF) expectsthe world economyIt will expand at 2.9% in 2023, an increase of 0.2% from the October 2022 forecast, as the Chinese economy tends to grow more as the control measures of the COVID-19 epidemic are lifted. and the country reopened again This is expected to support demand for oil tending to increase, however, the global economy is still exposed to risks of high inflation. of the impact of energy prices

– At the JMMC OPEC + Meeting on February 1, 2023, producers continued their original plan to reduce production by 2.0 million barrels due to the market risk of increased demand for Downgraded oil and uncertainty on the impact of European sanctions on Russian crude oil imports.

– US crude oil inventories are likely to increase for the seventh week in a row after refineries reduced their refining output during maintenance shutdowns, resulting in lower demand for crude oil. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US crude inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels as crude oil imports rose sharply from the previous week. by the amount of crude oil in the inventory at the delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma rose 2.3 million barrels to its highest level in two years since July 2021.

– ExportRussian crude oilremain at a high level and continue to increase Russia has been able to export more crude oil to Asian countries, especially China and India. According to FGE estimates, Russian crude oil exports in January 2023 were around 3.2 million barrels per day . which increased by more than 0.5 million barrels per day from the previous month. And crude oil exports are expected to continue to increase in February 2023, resulting in less supply from Russia than previously expected, which affects crude oil prices.

– The US Federal Reserve (FED) decided.raise interest ratesat 0.25% to reach a target of 4.50%-4.75% at the meeting on February 1, 2023, which is lower than the previous meeting which raised interest rates by 0.5% High interest rates continue for the rest of the year. reduce inflation to return to normal levels This could affect the US economy and the demand for oil.

– Among the economic things to watch this week are China’s January 2023 import and export figures which are expected to improve. after China returns to open the country European retail figures in January 2023 are expected to improve and the number of applicants for US unemployment benefits

Summary of the oil price situation during the last week (30 January – 3 February ’23)

West Texas Intermediate crude fell $4.51 to $73.39 a barrel last week, while Brent fell $4.96 to $79.94 a barrel.Dubai crude averaged $79.60 a barrel after US crude and finished oil volumes fell. Rising against market expectations. As a result, the market is concerned about the drop in demand for oil, with the EIA reporting that US crude oil inventories on January 27, 2023 increased by 4.1 million barrels to 452.7 million barrels, which n higher than what the market expects. a decrease of 400,000 barrels, while US gasoline and diesel inventories. The US dollar rose by 2.6 and 2.3 million barrels, respectively, however, the price was supported by the weaker US dollar after the US Federal Reserve (FED) decided to raise interest rates by 0.25%, according to the expect. to the target level of 4.50% -4.75%