Thaioil expects the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil this week to move within the range of US$69-80 per barrel, while Brent crude oil will move in the range of US$75-85 per barrel.
Crude oil price trend (09 – 13 Jan ’23)
Crude oil prices fluctuate in a decreasing range. After the manufacturing index (PMI) of the US, China and Japan came out below 50 last month. This shows that economic activity is slow. This may affect the global demand for oil. While the temperature in Europe is expected to rise next week. This can affect the demand for oil to replace natural gas (gas-to-oil change) falling. In addition, the market will keep an eye on various measures that many countries around the world can come out to control travelers from China. After China announced the opening of the country on January 8, 2023 due to concerns about the spread of COVID-19 in China still intense. As a result, demand for oil faces uncertainty.
Key factors expected to affect the oil price situation this week
The US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for December 2022 fell to 46.2, down from 47.7 the previous month, while China’s and Japan’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for December Q. 65 were at 47.0 and 48.9, which were also below 50, which reflects sluggish economic activity. Causing the market to worry about the global economic growth. This will lead to a slowdown in global demand for oil.
– Europe faces very hot weather in winter. from a heat wave by the Met Office It was reported that the temperature in Warsaw Poland recorded a record high of 18.9 degrees Celsius, while temperatures in some regions of Spain reached 25.1 degrees Celsius, around 10 degrees Celsius above the average over the same period. by temperatures that are warmer than normal This puts pressure on the demand for oil to replace natural gas (Gas-to-oil Switch).
– The European Union (EU) is preparing to consider measures to curb Chinese travelers. After member countries led by France, Spain and Italy, as well as non-members such as the United States, India, Japan, Taiwan and Morocco. That requires travelers from China from January 8 to show a negative COVID test before entering the country. Although the epidemic situation in China is likely to become more serious. After reports that hospitals being used to treat patients were inadequate. Amid concerns that the number of reported infections is being under-reported,
– Reuters said its average Brent crude price forecast for 2023 for December was $89.37 a barrel, down 4.5 percent from the previous forecast in November 65 at $93.65 a barrel due to recession concerns. which will put pressure on global demand for oil
– Baker Hughes reports the number of US crude oil and natural gas rigs. For the week ending December 30, 2022, it remained stable at 779 rigs, with the number of US crude oil and natural gas drilling rigs in 2022 an increase from the previous year of 193 rigs.
– The economy to watch this week is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022, which the market is expected to decline from next month. and the European Union industrial production index figure in December 2022
Summary of the oil price situation during the last week (2 January – 6 January ’23)
West Texas Intermediate crude fell $6.49 to $73.77 a barrel last week, while Brent fell $7.34 to $78.57 a barrel Dubai crude averaged $75.00 a barrel after China last announced refined oil export quotas of 19 million tonnes for gasoline, diesel and aerospace, 46 percent more than the same period last year, and 8 million tons for fuel oil. As a result, the market is expected to note that domestic demand is still weak. Markets remain nervous about a recession in 2023 after IMF Director Kristalina Georgiava said the US, European and Chinese economies are likely to face more difficulties this year, supported by reports on gasoline stocks and diesel. for the week ended December 30, 2022, which decreased 0.3 and 1.4 million barrels, respectively.