Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Forecast from 2 January 2023

Crude oil prices rose slightly. after China announced the opening of the country While the weather is very cold in the United States. This puts pressure on global demand for oil.

Thaioil expects the price of West Texas Intermediate this week to move within the range of US$76-86 per barrel, while Brent crude will move in the range of US$79-90 per barrel.

Crude oil price trend (02 – 06 Jan ’22)

Crude oil prices rose slightly. After China announced the opening of the country on January 8, 2023, this led the market to expect the demand for oil to tend to increase. while the weather was very cold from a snowstorm in the United States As a result, more than 1,000 flights had to be cancelled, putting pressure on the demand for oil in the United States. Causing the market to remain concerned that global crude oil supply tends to be tight.

Key factors expected to affect the oil price situation this week

– China announces relaxation of measures to control the spread of COVID-19. in many areas and consider lifting the extended quarantine period for international arrivals in January. 66 tonnes, considered to be easing measures to control the spread of COVID-19 China’s highest oil demand in more than three years, leading to market expectations of oil demand in China tending to increase. especially in the airline sector As it has been reported that the search for flights from China has increased significantly.

– The United States is facing extreme cold weather. from the winter storm in many cities in the north and north-east leading to power outages flash floods in some areas And more than 60 deaths due to cold temperatures Cause the number of flights to be canceled more than 1,000 flights, by affect the amount of demand for oil in the United States. which refineries along the US Gulf Coast also face such a problem. by temporarily suspending operations at some distilling units due to equipment failure As a result, more than 3.58 million barrels per day of US crude production capacity may be lost. While winter storms in the United States It is expected to cover until after the new year. Causing the market to worry about crude oil supply in the United States. It may tend to tighten, however, some refineries are trying to resume production.

– Russia plans to reduce crude oil production. 500,000-700,000 barrels per day in 2023 in response to Russia’s move to limit oil price ceilings by the G7 leaders and will not export crude oil to countries that take such measures. Starting from February 05, 2023 for crude oil and expected to continue to apply to refined oil. As a result, the market is concerned that supply tends to tighten due to the decline in Russian production. Although the number of Russian crude oil exports at sea in early December. 65, fell more than 54% to 1.5 million barrels per day.

– Russia announced that it will resume gas exports to Europe via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline after it was previously suspended due to political conflict between Russia and Europe. Gas prices in Europe fell on December 27, 2022 due to mild winter weather. As a result, consumption tends to fall, but gas prices are still higher than crude oil prices. As a result, consumers still tend to use oil instead of natural gas or Gas-to-Oil Switching.

– The market is still worried about a recession in the US and Europe in 2023 after the FED and ECB continue to raise interest rates. due to high inflation and the country’s growth rate fell The UK announced GDP Q3/22, down 0.3% QoQ, while other economic figures also fell, namely a decrease in private investment numbers 2.5% QoQ, which the economy tends to go into recession This puts pressure on global demand for oil.

– The economic data to watch this week includes the manufacturing and service sector figures for December. US 65 and December consumer confidence index. Europe at 65

Summary of the oil price situation during the last week (26 December – 30 December ’22)

West Texas Intermediate crude rose $0.70 to $80.26 a barrel last week, while Brent rose $1.99 to $85.91 a barrel. Dubai crude averaged $78.86 a barrel due to snowstorms in the United States. Caused the refinery to temporarily stop production due to equipment failure due to extreme cold weather As a result, US crude production lost 1.5 million barrels per day. Although demand for oil in China tends to recover. after China began to relax epidemic control measures and open up the country more The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports US crude oil inventories. For the week ended December 23, 2022, oil prices rose 0.7 million barrels to 419.0 million barrels, defying market expectations for a decline of 1.5 million barrels.

Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Forecast from 2 January 2023